Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Baez prediction, odds, picks for ATP Japan Open 2025

Carlos Alcaraz will square off with Sebastian Baez in the round of 32 at the ATP Tokyo event on Thursday.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model projects Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner of the match.

For a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks, visit our interactive Alcaraz vs. Baez predictions page.

Alcaraz vs. Baez prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Alcaraz-Baez men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Alcaraz a 96% chance of winning against Baez at the ATP Japan Open tournament.

For more insights into the growing popularity of betting on the sport, check out our comprehensive analysis of tennis' rise in the U.S. sports betting market.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Baez odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Alcaraz	Baez
Moneyline	-3030	+2600
Game Spread	+6.5 (+115)	-6.5 (-180)
Total Games	o17.5 (-108)	u17.5 (-126)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Make the most of your sports betting experience by exploring our comprehensive list of US betting apps, and the latest sportsbooks in 2025, ensuring you never miss a top new-user deal.

Alcaraz vs. Baez picks and best bets

Our model's biggest edge in today's Alcaraz vs. Baez match is on the first set.

Our expert predictions, aligned with the current odds, reveal the best tennis picks and tennis best bets for every match throughout the year.

Unlimited access to our full suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Alcaraz vs. Baez updates and essential details

The ATP Japan Open match between Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 5:10AM ET.

• Who: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Baez
• Date: Thursday, September 25, 2025
• Approx. Time: 5:10AM ET/2:10AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Tokyo, Japan Men's Singles 2025
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Dimers' in-depth preview of Thursday's Alcaraz vs. Baez match includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Baez picks, be sure to check out the latest tennis predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

Key tennis betting guides and insights

• Learn how to bet on tennis and understand how tennis odds work
• Explore where sports odds come from and how they’re applied to tennis matches
• Stay informed with guides on where online sports betting is currently legal and which states could legalize next
• Improve your chances with proven sports betting strategies that apply to tennis and more

Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with a 96% win probability, will likely beat Sebastian Baez at the ATP Japan Open tournament.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Alcaraz vs. Baez insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.

More on Tennis

Stay informed with the latest tennis betting news and parlay picks throughout the year. Plus, Dimers' ATP and WTA world rankings showcase our in-house approach to accurately ranking every men's and women's player in the world.