Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti Prediction, Odds, Picks for ATP Italian Open 2025

Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti are scheduled to meet in the semifinals of the ATP Italian Open event on Friday.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model (see Dimers Pro for full access) predicts Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner of the match.

"Employing the latest data, we simulated Friday's Alcaraz-Musetti match 10,000 times," said Dimers data analyst Greg Butyn.

"After computing the latest updates and thousands of other inputs, we predict Carlos Alcaraz' chance of winning is 70%, while Lorenzo Musetti's is 30%."

For expanded analysis of Friday's match, including best bets and picks, visit our interactive Alcaraz vs. Musetti predictions page.

Alcaraz vs. Musetti Prediction: Who Will Win and Advance to the Final?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's Alcaraz-Musetti men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Alcaraz a 70% chance of beating Musetti at the ATP Italian Open tournament.

Additionally, Alcaraz has a 66% chance of winning the first set, according to our model.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti Odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Alcaraz	Musetti
Moneyline	-303	+240
First Set	-250	+200

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Alcaraz vs. Musetti Picks and Best Bets

Our model's biggest edge in today's Alcaraz vs. Musetti match is on the moneyline.

Our expert predictions, aligned with the best odds, reveal the best tennis picks and tennis best bets for every match throughout the year.

Unlimited access to our full set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Alcaraz vs. Musetti Updates and Essential Details

The ATP Italian Open match between Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti is scheduled to begin on Friday at 9:30AM ET.

• Who: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti
• Date: Friday, May 16, 2025
• Approx. Time: 9:30AM ET/6:30AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2025
• Round: Semifinals

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Dimers.com's in-depth preview of Friday's Alcaraz vs. Musetti match includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti picks, be sure to check out the latest tennis predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

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Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat Lorenzo Musetti at the ATP Italian Open tournament.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Alcaraz vs. Musetti insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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