Carlos Alcaraz vs. Brandon Nakashima prediction, odds, picks for ATP Japan Open 2025

Carlos Alcaraz and Brandon Nakashima will lock horns in the quarterfinals of the ATP Japan Open event on Sunday.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner of the match.

"Using the most recent data, we ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Alcaraz-Nakashima match," said Dimers data analyst Greg Butyn.

"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows Carlos Alcaraz with a win probability of 88%, while Brandon Nakashima has 12%."

For expanded analysis of Sunday's match, including best bets and picks, visit our interactive Alcaraz vs. Nakashima predictions page.

Alcaraz vs. Nakashima prediction: Who will win and advance to the semifinals?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's Alcaraz-Nakashima men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Alcaraz an 88% chance of beating Nakashima at the ATP Japan Open tournament.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Brandon Nakashima odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Alcaraz	Nakashima
Moneyline	-1205	+880
Game Spread	+5.5 (-148)	-5.5 (+112)
Total Games	o20.5 (+100)	u20.5 (-118)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Alcaraz vs. Nakashima picks and best bets

Our model's strongest edge in today's Alcaraz vs. Nakashima match is on the moneyline.

Our expert predictions, aligned with the current odds, reveal the best tennis picks and tennis best bets for every match throughout the year.

Unlimited access to our complete suite of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Alcaraz vs. Nakashima updates and essential details

The ATP Japan Open match between Carlos Alcaraz and Brandon Nakashima is scheduled to commence on Sunday at 4:15AM ET.

• Who: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Brandon Nakashima
• Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025
• Approx. Time: 4:15AM ET/1:15AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Tokyo, Japan Men's Singles 2025
• Round: Quarterfinals

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Dimers' comprehensive preview of Sunday's Alcaraz vs. Nakashima match includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Carlos Alcaraz vs. Brandon Nakashima picks, be sure to check out the latest tennis predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

Key tennis betting guides and insights

• Learn how to bet on tennis and understand how tennis odds work
• Explore where sports odds come from and how they’re applied to tennis matches
• Stay informed with guides on where online sports betting is currently legal and which states could legalize next
• Improve your chances with proven sports betting strategies that apply to tennis and more

Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with an 88% win probability, will likely beat Brandon Nakashima at the ATP Japan Open tournament.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Alcaraz vs. Nakashima insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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