Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions prediction: Cats favored to win AFL Finals week one matchup [9/5/2025]

AFL action continues on Friday at 5:40AM ET as the Brisbane Lions square off with the Geelong Cats at Melbourne Cricket Ground.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven AFL model predicts the Cats as the most likely winner of the game.

For a closer look at Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks, visit our interactive Lions vs. Cats predictions page.

Cats vs. Lions prediction: Who will win AFL Finals week one matchup?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's AFL matchup between the Lions and Cats 10,000 times as part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Cats a 67% chance of beating the Lions.

According to our model, the Cats (-6.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the 169.5- over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.

Brisbane vs. Geelong odds

We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Lions	Cats
H2H (Moneyline)	+110	-141
Line (Spread)	+6.5 (-105)	-6.5 (-120)
Total	o169.5 (-110)	u169.5 (-120)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Cats vs. Lions game-day updates and essential details

Friday's Australian rules football game between the Cats and Lions at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 5:40AM ET.

• Who: Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats
• Date: Friday, September 5, 2025
• Time: 5:40AM ET/2:40AM PT
• Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground

The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.

Dimers.com's comprehensive preview of Friday's Lions vs. Cats matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Brisbane vs. Geelong picks, be sure to check out the latest AFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

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Conclusion

We predict the Cats, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat the Lions on Friday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lions vs. Cats insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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