Bills vs. Patriots Week 13 Prediction and Odds - Dec 1, 2022

The New England Patriots take on the Buffalo Bills in NFL Week 13 action at Gillette Stadium on Thursday, commencing at 8:15PM ET.

Dimers' free betting picks for Bills vs. Patriots, plus game predictions, betting odds and touchdown scorer probabilities, are featured in this article.

Who will win Bills vs. Patriots?

Based on high-tech machine learning and data, Dimers.com has simulated Thursday's Bills-Patriots NFL game 10,000 times.

Dimers' renowned predictive analytics model, DimersBOT, currently gives the Bills a 63% chance of defeating the Patriots in Week 13 of the NFL season.

More: Bills vs. Patriots Simulated 10K Times

Bills vs. Patriots Current Odds

• Spread: Patriots +4 (-110), Bills -4 (-105)
• Moneyline: Patriots +180, Bills -190
• Total: Over/Under 43.5 (-110/-110)

Point Spread, Moneyline and Over/Under

The Patriots are currently +4 underdogs versus the Bills, with -110 at Caesars Sportsbook the best odds currently available.

For the favored Bills (-4) to cover the spread, PointsBet has the best odds currently on offer at -105.

Caesars Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Patriots at +180. That means you can bet $100 to profit $180, earning a total payout of $280, if they win.

Elsewhere, BetMGM currently has the best moneyline odds for the Bills at -190, where you can risk $190 to win $100, for a total payout of $290, if they come out on top.

The Over/Under for total points scored sits at 43.5 with Caesars Sportsbook, which currently has the best odds for the Over at -110, as well as the best odds for the Under at -110.

As always, make sure you check the sportsbooks you can bet with in your state for the best NFL odds and lines.

According to DimersBOT, the Patriots (+4) are a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the 43.5-point Over/Under is a 52% chance of going Over.

More: Track Your Bets via Bet Center

Best Bets for Bills vs. Patriots

• Spread: Patriots +4 @ -110 via Caesars Sportsbook (52% probability)
• Moneyline: Patriots @ +180 via Caesars Sportsbook (1.0% edge)
• Total: Over 43.5 @ -110 via Caesars Sportsbook (52% probability)

Our best bets are based on world-class modeling and wagering expertise to help you make smarter decisions with the legal sportsbooks in the USA.

While the Bills are more likely to win the game, according to DimersBOT, taking the Patriots moneyline is the best option because of the 1.0% edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the betting odds currently available.

Taking advantage of the edges published here at Dimers.com is crucial to achieving long-term profitability as a bettor.

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction

Dimers.com's predicted final score for Buffalo vs. New England at Gillette Stadium in Week 13 has the Bills winning 23-20.

Click or tap on See Matchup for more.

Dimers has full betting coverage of this week's Bills-Patriots matchup in Week 13, including pregame predictions, best betting picks, and live win probabilities.

Bills vs. Patriots Player Props

Who will score the first touchdown in Bills vs. Patriots? The data is in.

Featured below are the most likely first touchdown and most likely anytime touchdown scorers for both the Bills and Patriots, as well as player stat projections.

And you know what, we provide this information to you for FREE to help you choose the best prop bets for Thursday's game.

According to DimersBOT, New England's Rhamondre Stevenson is most likely to score the first TD in Bills vs. Patriots.

DimersBOT gives Stevenson a 12.5% chance of scoring the first TD at Gillette Stadium, while the Patriots RB is a 49.0% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.

Scroll down for our full list of first and anytime TD scorer probabilities.

First Touchdown Scorer Probabilities

Buffalo Bills

• Stefon Diggs: 12.4% probability
• Josh Allen: 8.5% probability
• Gabe Davis: 8.3% probability
• Devin Singletary: 7.2% probability
• Isaiah McKenzie: 6.6% probability

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson: 12.5% probability
• Jakobi Meyers: 5.8% probability
• Hunter Henry: 5.2% probability
• Jonnu Smith: 4.1% probability
• Tyquan Thornton: 3.1% probability

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Probabilities

Buffalo Bills

• Stefon Diggs: 48.0% probability
• Josh Allen: 35.4% probability
• Gabe Davis: 34.7% probability
• Devin Singletary: 30.8% probability
• Isaiah McKenzie: 29.0% probability

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson: 49.0% probability
• Jakobi Meyers: 27.8% probability
• Hunter Henry: 23.5% probability
• Jonnu Smith: 19.1% probability
• Tyquan Thornton: 15.1% probability

Bills-Patriots Projected Player Stats

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 257 passing yards, while the Patriots' Mac Jones is expected to throw for 207 yards.

Bills Starting QB

• Josh Allen: 257 projected yards

Patriots Starting QB

• Mac Jones: 207 projected yards

Bills Rushing

• Devin Singletary: 53 projected yards
• Josh Allen: 43 projected yards
• James Cook: 20 projected yards

Patriots Rushing

• Rhamondre Stevenson: 69 projected yards
• Kevin Harris: 12 projected yards
• Mac Jones: 11 projected yards

Bills Receiving

• Stefon Diggs: 88 projected yards
• Gabe Davis: 53 projected yards
• Dawson Knox: 30 projected yards
• Isaiah McKenzie: 23 projected yards
• Devin Singletary: 18 projected yards

Patriots Receiving

• Jakobi Meyers: 42 projected yards
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 36 projected yards
• DeVante Parker: 33 projected yards
• Jonnu Smith: 29 projected yards
• Hunter Henry: 26 projected yards

Don't forget, DimersBOT updates often, so keep an eye on this page for the latest betting analysis ahead of Bills vs. Patriots on Thursday December 1, 2022.

Bills vs. Patriots 2022

The NFL Week 13 action between the Patriots and Bills at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to commence at 8:15PM ET.

• Who: Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
• Date: Thursday December 1, 2022
• Time: 8:15PM ET / 5:15PM PT
• Venue: Gillette Stadium

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