Best NFL Props Betting Picks, Predictions and Parlay: Thursday, September 30, 2021

This week's NFL action kicks off with the Jaguars taking on the Bengals in Thursday Night Football and we've used our player projection model to find some value in the betting markets.

With a combination of TD scorers, passing yards and more, these bets are here to get your Week 4 betting ride started.

Today's NFL props picks and odds are proudly brought to you by TwinSpires Sportsbook.

Free NFL Props for Thursday, September 30, 2021

Jaguars vs. Bengals, Thursday Night Football, 8:20pm (EDT)

PICK: Ja'Marr Chase to score an anytime touchdown (+123)

Ja'Marr Chase gets touchdowns, fact. So far this season, the LSU alum has scored four TDs in three games, including a double against the Steelers last week.

With that Burrow connection looking as strong as it did in college, we like him to score again this week, with a 45.8% providing a nice edge on odds of +123 or better! 

Week 4: Most likely touchdown scorers

PICK: Joe Mixon UNDER 86.5 rushing yards (-114)

Joe Mixon started the season HOT when he ran for 127 yards in the Bengals' opening game of the season, but he's since rushed for 69 and 90 yards (still good numbers).

Our model has him going for 75 this week, which lines up with our prediction for this to be a pass heavy game, as Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow go head-to-head.

PICK: Trevor Lawrence OVER 243.5 passing yards (-114)

Trevor Lawrence isn't used to losing. And although he hasn't been setting the world on fire just yet, his teammates also haven't been up to scratch to help the former Clemson star chalk up his first NFL dub.

So far this season, his passing yard numbers have been inconsistent, reading: 332, 118, 219. That first number of 332 came against the Texans, where he also threw for 3 TDs and 3 INTs, since then he has averaged just 1 TD and 2 INTs per game.

We expect him to go back to the style of Week 1, with more yards, more scores and more picks. At the time of writing, our model is projecting Big Trev to go for 278 yards, which would see him pass his line with ease. Take the Over!

MORE: Jaguars vs. Bengals simulator

Thursday Night Football Parlay

Jaguars vs. Bengals, Thur Sept 30, 8:20pm (EDT)

🔥 Chase anytime TD
🔥 Mixon u86.5 rush yards
🔥 Lawrence o243.5 pass yards

💰 Parlay these prop picks (+630)

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