Avoiding "Fool's Gold" with Prospector Sam

As you probably can tell from the title of this fine piece of literature, today’s topic is right in my wheelhouse. Is that because I deliberately crafted it that way? Absolutely. But there’s nothing wrong with setting yourself up for success.

"Fool’s Gold” can mean a lot of things in a variety of different contexts, and as a Prospector it should be no surprise that anything gold-related comes as an area of expertise. Unfortunately, I don't have much of an opportunity to stumble my way across real chunks of gold on a daily basis (if I did, I’d retire so fast your head would spin), but what I do see a lot of is gold in the form of valuable bets.

Just like the real hunks of metal, though, not everything is always what it’s cracked up to be. Some bets look like a good idea at the start, only for you to dig a little deeper or look a little closer and realize that it’s actually just a piece of garbage. In line with that, let’s talk a little bit about how to decide if you’ve hit the jackpot on a valuable bet or whether you’ve stumbled into a pit of vipers dressed up like a pretty girl (how that would work, I have no idea, but use your imagination). With that, a traditional “list” of things to look for when you’ve found a bet you like but need to decide whether it’s worth pulling the trigger.

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All That Glitters is not Gold

Not only do I get the pleasure of whipping out a terrible cliche, but it’s right in line with the theme so I couldn't help myself. And, even better, it actually fits the article well (sometimes I have to force it like a fat guy trying to get into old pants that were snug 30 pounds ago, which is never fun). To keep this simple, the first step is to recognize that not every bet that catches your eye is a good one. As I scan the board every day, my initial work is done looking for wagers or angles that catch my eye like a fish with a shiny object, but not every shiny object is safe to bite. Pull together a list of potential options, but never trust a read on 5 seconds of instinct alone. Go and verify whether every bet is backed by metrics, or even just give yourself some time to sit on it. Some of those “great ideas” will start looking uglier with time, like the 10 you slept with after a night drinking who turned out to be a 3 in the morning.

Where’s the Obvious Bias?

One of the easiest ways to get lost on a bet is to let bias plague your choices. Now, getting rid of all bias is absolutely impossible and you should never aspire to that, but there are easy mistakes to pick out that could be influencing you. Do you have a rooting interest? Did you recently bet on or against one of the teams and are still love struck/butthurt? Are you betting on the game because you want to watch it? All of these are easy questions to ask, and should set off alarm bells that value may not be the only factor impacting your bet. This may not be a reason NOT to make the bet, but it is worth thinking about.

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Do the Numbers Back the Pick?

This sort of matters, but sort of doesn't. As I’ve said many times before, gambling isn’t a pure numbers game. If it were that easy, everyone would do it well. The best gamblers use intuition that goes beyond metrics to find value, and that’s the way they beat the books. But, if you like a bet on intuition AND the number back it then all the more reason to put your money down. At the very least, you should know whether the stats back you so that you can find a clear explanation. Speaking of…

Can You Explain Yourself?

This is probably the most important one on the list, and it’s a tree I bark up all the time (not that I’m a dog, but there are certainly a few similarities like my short attention span). I frequently lean towards bets and start writing out my thought process, only to realize that the logic doesn't hold up or I don’t like them as much as I thought I did. When that happens, I scrap the pick and look for something else. At the very least, you need some sort of explanation for why the bet is going to go the way you think, or you’re just guessing. It doesn’t mean you’ll be right (once again, the best of the best lose 40+% of the time), but it gives you credibility.

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Is This a Hill You’re Willing to Die On?

This phrase gets thrown around in my home way too much, but it’s one that I like a lot. At the end of the day, nobody questions you when you win a bet because everyone is happy and richer. But when you lose? That’s when the wolves come to pick you apart. I don’t advocate for making bets based on a fear of losing, but I usually ask myself whether the bet I’m about to make is one I can live with being wrong on. More appropriately, the idea is really whether I’ve put in the work and come to a conclusion that I think is good enough to put my name behind. If that’s the case, then so be it; I hope to win but I wont regret the loss because I know I did everything possible. But, if I happen to lose, I can still walk away with some self respect because the process was right, no matter how boneheaded the choice. So long as you can do that on your picks you can handle losing, and losing is something you have to get used to in this business.

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