2025 US Open Picks, Odds, Predictions at Oakmont Country Club led by Sepp Straka, Tommy Fleetwood

The third major of the year arrives with the stories US Open at Oakmont Country Club, teeing off from Thursday, June 12 through Sunday, June 15.

All the best golfers in the world will be here, including Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler looking for their second major of the year, as well as reigning champion Bryson DeChambeau.

MORE: How to Watch 2025 US Open

Dimers predictive golf model has run 1000s of simulations on the 2025 US Open, identifying intriguing bets in the winner and placement markets. Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks where a $5 bet on any golfer can get you a $150 new-user bonus at bet365 sportsbook with the bet365 sportsbook bonus code "DIMERS".

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. Our PGA predictions are sourced from the powerful Dimers Pro predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2024 and is turning out winners this year, hitting a +883 Masters parlay, and identifying Scottie Scheffler to win the CJ CUP Byron Nelson and the PGA Championship Over the past month, we've hit on a ladder play with Tommy Fleetwood at the Charles Schwab Challenge, a win for Sepp Straka at the Memorial and a +1200 Top American play on Sam Burns at the RBC Canadian Open.

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Who Will Win the 2025 US Open Golf?

Below are the five most likely winners of the 2025 US Open, the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:

• Scottie Scheffler - Scheffler enters as the clear favorite with a dominant 24.8% win probability and a staggering 80.9% chance to finish top 20. With three wins already in 2025, including the PGA Championship, he remains the gold standard this season.
• Bryson DeChambeau - Fresh off a T5 at the Masters and a T2 at the PGA Championship, DeChambeau carries strong momentum into the third major this week with a 5.1% chance to win and over 50% to place top 20.
• Jon Rahm - Rahm has excelled with LIV and in both major appearances this season, and his 3.4% win probability and 46.9% top-20 chance still reflect elite potential if his game clicks.
• Collin Morikawa - Morikawa is in the midst of a tough run with just one Top 20 in his past five events, but his 3.3% win probability makes him a dangerous sleeper in a strong field.
• Rory McIlroy - Despite back-to-back poor starts, McIlroy still owns a 45.1% chance to crack the top 20 and a 3.2% win chance as he looks for Major No. 2 this year.
  
  

What is the 2025 US Open Course and Layout?

This will be the tenth year that Oakmont Country Club has hosted the US Open, the most all time.

A 7,372-yard par-70, Oakmont is expected to be the most difficult course of the year.

Thick rough, fast greens and a need for accuracy will test even the best ball-strikers this weekend and those who fail to minimize bogeys will find themselves falling behind quickly as it's less about taking shots off your score and more about avoiding double bogeys or worse.

Scores have varied wildly at this event, but just 3 of the last 10 editions have seen a winning score in the double digits, while reigning champ Bryson DeChambeau won with a score of -6 last year and Dustin Johnson won with a -4 the last time Oakmont hosted.

MORE: US Open Parlay Picks: LIV vs. PGA Matchups

The US Open Betting Preview

We're looking at the golfers that our model has identified with a higher probability to win than that implied by the sports betting sites and with Scottie Scheffler back in the field as well as the LIV crew, there are not a lot of big edges jumping out so it could pay to use one of the many available sports betting promos.

We'll also highlight some standout prop and placement bets if we find any appealing value when perusing the board.

Scottie Scheffler is as short as they come in the odds and it may be worth exploring the "winner without Scheffler" market for the winners below.

Tommy Fleetwood (+4000 on FanDuel)

Our first best bet and the highest on our board is on Englishman Tommy Fleetwood to keep his strong run going at +4000 odds with a FanDuel Sportsbook promo.

Fleetwood has just one finish outside the Top 20 in his past five events, including a pair of T4s. He's playing about as well as he ever has, sitting 7th in Strokes Gained: Total and 34th in Driving Accuracy, which will be huge this week, and he's 10th in Par 4 scoring, hopefully giving him opportunities to chip down his score while others struggle.

DimersBOT gives him a 3.1% probability to win it (fair odds would be +3160), and he's available as long as +4000.

Sepp Straka (+5000 on DraftKings)

Sepp Straka came up big for us as a ladder play just a couple of weeks ago at the Memorial tournament, cashing the Top 5/10/20 ladder with a solo third place finish.

He has not performed well at this year's majors, missing the cut at both, but other wise has a single finish outside T15 in his past 10 events and through 16 events played this year, has only finished outside the Top 20 in five of them (cuts included).

Two wins this year and some excellent metrics: 1st hitting greens in regulation, 2nd in SG: Total, 3rd on Approach, 11th in Driving Accuracy and 17th in Putting line him up for a big week.

Our model gives Straka a 2.9% probability to win, which would be fair odds of +3350, so he's great value at +5000 if using a DraftKings Sportsbook bonus.

He's once again this week's ladder play, so consider spreading some wagers across his full placements:

• Top 5: 14.0% at +850
• Top 10: 26.7% at +360
• Top 20: 43.9% at +160

Ben Griffin (+7500 on FanDuel)

It's going to be a tough weekend for everyone so why not look to one of the hottest golfers on TOUR right now?

Ben Griffin has three-straight finishes inside the Top 10, including a win and a solo second. He also won the team event Zurich Classic back in April.

That run of success has him fifth in FedExCup points and that's no fluke - he's been playing his best golf with a well-rounded game, landing him 18th in SG: total this year.

Griffin isn't the most accurate, but has made up for that with his approach and scoring as he ranks 45th among all golfers in bogey avoidance.

He remains a longshot to win at 1.9%, but that would mean his fair odds should be +5160. For context, a $5 bet on Griffin at +7500 would pay $117 more than at his fair price of +5160.

Akshay Bhatia (+15000 on DraftKings)

Our final winner pick is a big longshot, but when the DimersBOT says the odds are way off, we can't ignore it.

Akshay Bhatia is one of the game's most talented young golfers but struggles with consistency, His stretch of three Top 10s in four weeks earlier this year seems like a distant memory as he followed that up with six straight events of a cut or finish outside the Top 40.

However, Bhatia is climbing back, finishing T22 and T16 in his past two events.

He has an above average accurate driver, ranks 5th in birdie average, 12th in putting and 21st on approach, and if he control his speed on the slick greens, he could find himself in the mix late.

At just 1.0% to win, he should be +9900, however DraftKings has him at +15000, while he's as low as +12000 at places such as bet365 sportsbook.

2025 US Open Prop Bets

You can find more winners with value by digging in to our full US Open Predictions with Dimers Pro.

Plus, in addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got a few placement and unique market bets to consider for this week's 2025 US Open as well. As well as being value plays as single wagers, consider playing these in a parlay to potentially rack up some serious profits.

Sam Burns Top 20 (+220 on DraftKings)

Sam Burns lost in a playoff to miss cashing us a +3000 winner ticket at the RBC Canadian Open, but he did net us a +1200 Top USA finish.

Burns has a pair of Top fives and five Top 20s in his past six events and looks like a completely different golfer from the one who was cut or outside the Top 20 in his previous nine.

He's above the field average in all driving categories and has the No. 1 ranked putter on TOUR.

At 33.5%, DimersBOT says Burns shouldn't even be +200 for a T-20 finish, let alone +220 which is what can get him at with DraftKings.

Keegan Bradley Top 10 (+550 on DraftKings)

He hasn't been lighting the TOUR on fire, but Bradley is having a pretty solid year, most recently securing back-to-back Top 10 finishes, including at the PGA Championship.

Eight of his 13 events have seen him finish T20 or better, half of those in the Top 10.

His putting leaves a lot to be desired, but everywhere else, he's golden: 19th in total driving, 14th on approach and third tee-to-green all give him enough tools to contend, and we're just looking for Top 10, not all the way, though consider his Top 20 if you want a safer play for less value.

He's right at fair odds with our model projecting him with a 15.5% chance of his third straight Top 10.

Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR

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