2025 Truist Championship Picks, Odds, Predictions and Betting Preview: McIlroy Big Favorite in Philadelphia

If the CJ CUP Byron Nelson taught us anything, it's that Scottie Scheffler is inevitable.

It took longer than expected for the World No. 1 to pick up his first win of 2025, but he did so in stunning fashion at TPC Craig Ranch, winning by 8 strokes and tying the PGA TOUR 72-hole record with a 31-under par. 

With one week to go before the PGA Championship, we're dialing in for this week's Truist Championship in Philadelphia, teeing off from Thursday, May 8 through Sunday, May 11. With Scottie absent from the field, Masters winner Rory McIlroy is the heavy betting favorite at +500 odds in this no-cut event.

Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations with the field in this tournament, identifying intriguing bets in the winner and placement markets. Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks where a $5 bet on any golfer can get you a $150 new-user bonus at bet365 sportsbook with the bet365 bonus code DIMERS.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. Our PGA predictions are sourced from the powerful Dimers Pro predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2024 and got off to a productive start this year, most recently hitting our +883 Masters parlay and identifying Scottie Scheffler with value to win the CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

Dimers Pro unlocks complete access to all of our Golf Predictions as well as best bets and props for over a dozen leagues on Dimers.com, including NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, college sports and international soccer. Find out how to join for less than $1/day by hitting the button below.

Who Will Win the 2025 Truist Championship?

Here are the five most likely winners of the 2025 Truist Championship, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5/10/20:

2025 Truist Championship Course Breakdown and Betting Preview

A 72-golfer field will tee off on the Wissahickon Course at Philadelphia Cricket Club for 72 holes of no-cut golf and a $20,000,000 purse up for grabs. The course is a one-year substitute for Quail Hollow which will be the site of next week's PGA Championship.

As a 7,119-yard par 70, the Wissahickon Course features larger than average greens and wider fairways but will play fast thanks to the bentgrass greens while posing a challenge with numerous water and sand hazards all over the links. 

Rory McIlroy is the defending champ, his fourth win at the event, though not at this course.

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

Best Bets to Win the 2025 Truist Championship

Returning Champ Rory McIlroy is the +500 betting favorite, but at 11.3% to win, our model says he should be closer to +790. He's more likely to finish in the Top 10 than outside, but the value isn't there. For that reason, we'll be looking further down the board where our value lies, though we don't shy away from a favorite when the price is right.

We're looking at the golfers that our model has identified with a higher probability to win than that implied by the sportsbook odds, from some Top 5 contenders to longshot dark horses. We'll also highlight some standout prop and placement bets if we find any appealing value when perusing the board.

Russell Henley (+3500 on FanDuel)

After a couple weeks off, Russell Henley is back in the mix and we're backing him all the way up the board.

Henley has 5 career wins, including one this season, along with 5 Top 10s this year. He's stumbled a couple of times - a T39 at the Genesis, a T30 at THE PLAYERS and a missed cut at the Masters, but has otherwise been excellent. Every time he's finished in the Top 20, he's landed a Top 10 or better, good enough for fifth in FedExCup points and the 9th spot in the OWGR.

He's 5th in Total Strokes Gained, 14th in putting and 12th in driving accuracy. He gets birdies (4th overall) and crushes Par 3s and Par 4s.

DimersBOT gives him a 4.2% probability to win for fair odds of +2280, giving us huge value against his +3500 odds on FanDuel. That's over a $100 difference in payout for a $10 bet.

He's our top target this week and worth a ladder play for each placement as he's over 50% to finish Top 20, yet at plus money.

Ladder Recommendation:

Use this staking guide as an example on how to stagger your wagers across Russell Henley's ladder this weekend. Wager amounts are an example, and you should only bet what you are comfortable with. Based on this staking plan, if he only finishes Top 20, you're still walking away with profit.

• Winner - $2 to win $70
• Top 5 - $5 to win $32.50
• Top 10 - $10 to win $28
• Top 20 - $25 to win $27.50

Shane Lowry (+3500 on FanDuel)

Next up, we're going back to the big Irishman, Shane Lowry.

He has a trio of Top 10 finishes this year, and he's only finished outside T20 once since the start of March (7 events). If not for a brutal final round at The Masters, he would have been in the mix there as well.

Lowry is 6th in Total Strokes Gained, 11th on Approach and his 49th ranked sand save % should come in handy with the abundance of bunkers at this course. His putting leaves some to be desired, but thanks to his sound approach, he should be able to shorten up the greens.

DimersBOT projects Lowry with a 3.2% probability to win, for fair odds of +3025, giving us a slim edge, but nearly a $50 difference in payout for a $10 bettor.

Consider a Top 20 parlay of him and Henley for a little bankroll builder on the side.

Best Prop Bets for the 2025 Truist Championship

You can find more winners with value by digging in to our full Truist Championship Predictions with Dimers Pro.

Plus, in addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got a few placement and unique market bets to consider for this week's 2025 Truist Championship as well. As well as being value plays as single wagers, consider playing these in a parlay to potentially rack up some serious profits.

Alex Noren Top 20 (+300 on DraftKings)

The Swedish veteran is set to make his 2025 debut after hamstring and glute injuries sidelined him through the early part of 2025, just in time to tune up for next week's PGA Championship where he finished Top 15 last year.

Noren had a solid season last year, finishing in the Top 20 in 9/20 events, including four Top 10s.

He was 12th in Strokes Gained Total last year, backed by an accurate driver, solid putter and very good iron play.

You can take dart on him to win at his super long +12500 odds, but that may be a tall ask in his first action of 2025, so we're looking at where he found the most success last year, a Top 20 finish at +300, with our 37.9% probability making fair odds of just +165.

Hideki Matsuyama Top Asian (+190 on DraftKings)

It's not been Matsuyama's best year, which says a lot considering he won the opening event of the season. since, he's mustered just two finishes inside the Top 20, though he does have three T25 or better, so he's been close, but hasn't quite been able to put together a consistent four rounds.

He's been resting up since the Maters where he finished T21 and is looking to tune up for next week and improve on his T35 at the PGA Championship last year.

So, instead of looking him to place Top 20 (+115), we'll take him to finish as the Top Asian golfer, pitting him against three others in the field, and at odds of +190. He'll likely need to flirt with a Top 20 finish to beat all of his competition anyway and we aren't reliant on his placement and face significantly fewer tie scenarios.

Here's how he stacks up H2H to win vs. each of the other Asian golfers, with our probability for him to beat each:

• vs. Sungjae Im (52.0%)
• vs. Si Woo Kim (53.7%)
• vs. Byeong Hun An (63.1%)

Corey Conners Top Canadian (+115 on DraftKings)

We'll do the same thing with our final bet but in a different region, taking Corey Conners to finish as the Top Canadian in this field.

Conners gets a Top 10 win probability from our model at 2.8% The next highest projected Canadian is Taylor Pendrith outside our Top 20 at just 0.9%, Nick Taylor at 0.5% and Adam Hadwin at 0.2%.

Conners had 5 Top 10s this year, finishing inside the Top 25 in 7/11 events. Pendrith and Hadwin have six Top 25s between them combined, and Taylor hasn't finished inside the Top 30 in his past five solo events, missing two cuts and a pair of T40 or worse.

Conners odds to finish Top 20 are +110, just slightly worse than his odds here.

Here's how Conners stacks up H2H against his competition:

• vs. Pendrith (59.2%)
• vs. Hadwin (74.2%)
• vs. Taylor (65.8%)

Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

• PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
• Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
• Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
• PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR

Dimers and Responsible Gambling

Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.