PGA 2025: The Memorial Tournament Picks, Odds, Predictions at Muirfield Village Golf Club led by Justin Thomas

The PGA TOUR heads to Dublin, OH for the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, taking the action to the links at Muirfield Village Golf Club for the latest signature event featuring a $20,000,000 purse and 700 FedExCup points up for grabs for a loaded field.

Scottie Scheffler is the returning champion coming off a T4 finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge, looking to become the first repeat champ at this event since Tiger Woods.

Tommy Fleetwood looks to continue his run of recent success after cashing the Top 20, Top 10 and Top 5 ladder play at Colonial.

Let's climb the ladder at Colonial Country Club. 🪜

Tommy Fleetwood has been having himself a strong year and DimersBOT identifies value all the way up the board this week.

He's our second-most likely winner and has finished Top 20 in 6/10 events in 2025. pic.twitter.com/aQqL3b0n4r

— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) May 21, 2025

Dimers predictive golf model has run 1000s of simulations on the 2025 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, identifying intriguing bets in the winner and placement markets. Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks where a $5 bet on any golfer can get you a $150 new-user bonus at bet365 sportsbook with the bet365 bonus code DIMERS.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. Our PGA predictions are sourced from the powerful Dimers Pro predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2024 and got off to a productive start this year, most recently hitting our +883 Masters parlay, identifying Scottie Scheffler with value to win the CJ CUP Byron Nelson, as well as at the PGA Championship and as mentioned, hitting our Tommy Fleetwood ladder at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

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Who Will Win the 2025 Memorial Tournament?

Below are the five most likely winners of the 2025 Memorial Tournament, the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:

Scottie Scheffler enters as the clear favorite once again. His likelihood of finishing in the top 5, 10, and 20 is the highest by a wide margin in each, though the odds are closer to his fair price than we've seen in some recent weeks.

Justin Thomas is our second-highest contender, though his odds are third-best, hinting at some slight value as the best chance to beat defending champ Scheffler.

Tommy Fleetwood is in position for another successful week, drawing a Top 20 probability of over 50%, suggesting a strong floor with major upside.

The rest of the top five projected finishers features our only other two golfers with over a 50% probability of a Top 20 finish, Xander Schauffele and last year's runner-up Collin Morikawa, notably placing these five golfers in an exclusive tier of those more likely to finish inside the Top 20 than outside.

What is the 2025 Memorial Tournament Course and Layout?

Muirfield Village is a 7,569-yard Par 72, one of the longest on the schedule. A difficult course due its narrow fairways and small greens, Muirfield Village rewards accuracy above all else, punishing those who miss the greens and struggle with scrambling.

Three of the past five tournaments have a winning score in single digits, and a playoff or 1 stroke has decided three of the last four.

Tee-to-green is a major metric at this course, combined with those who avoid bogeys thanks to strong iron play.

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

The Memorial Tournament Betting Preview

We're looking at the golfers that our model has identified with a higher probability to win than that implied by the sportsbook odds, from some Top 5 contenders to longshot dark horses.

We'll also highlight some standout prop and placement bets if we find any appealing value when perusing the board.

Justin Thomas (+1800 on DraftKings)

Justin Thomas is our model's most-likely winner, beyond Scheffler, the overwhelming tournament favorite, at the Memorial Tournament with 5.6% probability. 

Available at +1800 odds, there's a slim value as the model's fair price would be +1690. It's not a major value, but if you're not interested in betting Scheffler's short price, Thomas is our next best.

He's got a win as recently as the RBC Heritage, the only golfer with a win in 2025 who sits in the Top 5 besides Scheffler. He has three 2nd-place finishes and two other Top 10s this year, thanks to his 3rd-rank in Strokes-Gained and 5th-ranked Approach.

He does struggle off the tee and with scrambling, but his strengths should offset those deficiencies enough to put him in the mix this weekend.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2800 on FanDuel)

We'll go back to our man Tommy Fleetwood who cashed Top 5, Top 10 and Top 20 for us last weekend, coming up 4 strokes shy of winning it all due to a tough stretch on the back 9 on Sunday.

Still, that added another great result to his already strong year, which features three Top 10s over his past four events, including a pair of Top 5s.

Fleetwood ranks 31st in driving accuracy, 11th on approach and backs that up with solid scrambling.

His 4.3% probability to win would be fair at +2200 while he's a favorable +2800 at FanDuel, comapred to just +2500 on DraftKings. His value doesn't extend into placements like last week, but he's great value to win.

Corey Conners (+3200 on bet365)

Like Thomas, our next pick isn't a huge value, but the close to fair odds on a good golfer are hard to pass up.

Canadian Corey Conners has a single finish outside the Top 20 in his past eight events. Four of those are Top 10 results. He's contended with loaded fields all season, finishing T8 at The Masters and T19 at the PGA Championship, his most recent outing.

Everything lines up for a good weekend from Conners - he's 11th in Driving Accuracy, 11th Off the Tee, 9th at hitting Green in Regulation, 46th in Scrambling (5th form the rough) - the list goes on.

At 3.1%, his fair odds would be +3125, while you can grab him at +3200 on bet365.

Sepp Straka (+4500 on FanDuel)

Our final pick to win is on Austrian Sepp Straka who's coming off a whiplash of results, winning at the Truist Championship before missing the cut at the PGA Championship.

Cuts have been a small issue for Straka this year - he's missed three since his electric start - but outside of those, he has only two finishes outside the Top 20 all year in 15 events, and he bagged a T5 here last year.

He's got an accurate driver, ranked 11th, while his Driving Distance hurts his overall Off the Tee performance (52nd) but we need the accuracy this weekend over the brute force.

He's 2nd in Approach and hits the most greens in regulation on the entire PGA TOUR. He's a decent scrambler, ranked 79th and above TOUR average, but he should be able to minimize those situations with his strengths.

He's a 3.0% probability to win for fair odds of +3225, while we can grab him at +4500 for a huge difference.

Straka is also this week's ladder play, so consider spreading some wagers across his full placements:

• Top 5: 14.2% at +800
• Top 10: 27.1% at +330
• Top 20: 48.4% at +135

2025 the Memorial Tournament Prop Bets

You can find more winners with value by digging in to our full Memorial Tournament presented by Workday Predictions with Dimers Pro.

Plus, in addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got a few placement and unique market bets to consider for this week's 2025 Memorial Tournament as well. As well as being value plays as single wagers, consider playing these in a parlay to potentially rack up some serious profits.

Alex Noren Top 20 (+185 on DraftKings)

Some of the best value on the board lies in a Top 20 placement one you scroll past the top contenders.

Alex Noren made his 2025 debut at the Truist Championship after missing the start of the year due to recovery from offseason injuries. He finished T51, turning in a pair of 72s after starting off with two great rounds.

Then, he contended at the PGA Championship, finishing T17, undone by a final round +5, where a par would have seen him finish solo second.

He's 38.2% to finish Top 20 this week which would make fair odds of +160 - go get him at +185 at DraftKings for a little edge.

Shane Lowry Top 20 (+125 on DraftKings)

The Irishman is back after missing the cut at the PGA Championship, a disappointing follow-up to his T2 at the Truist.

Shane Lowry has flashed plenty of upside this year with a pair of runner-up finishes and two other Top 10s, and four other Top 20s.

He's ranked 34th Off the Tee, 6th on Approach and 20th in Scrambling with all the tools to succeed at Muirfield Village.

Our model says he should be nearly +100 at a 48.4% probability, but we can get him at +125 for nice value.

Give him a look to finish as the Top European (+800) or Top Great Britain/Ireland (+360), as he ranks Top 3 in both of those categories by our model.

Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

• PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
• Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
• Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
• PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR

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