2025 PGA TOUR Championship Picks, Odds, Predictions: Time to Back Tommy Fleetwood at East Lake

It's time for the final stop of the FedExCup Playoffs as we prepare for the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta from Thursday, August 21 to Sunday, August 24.

Last week proved once again that you can only hope to fend off Scottie Scheffler. After what looked like a wire-to-wire victory in his grasp, Robert Macintyre succumbed to the pressure as Scheffler chased him down to surpass him for a two-stroke victory on the final day of the BMW Championship.

We move to the final event of the PGA TOUR season before the FedExCup Fall events as the TOUR Championship looms with a mammoth $40 Million purse and we've narrowed down a handful of bets for this marquee event.

These best bets are here to help guide your outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks for the FedExCup Playoffs, where a $5 bet on any golfer can get you a $150 new-user bonus at bet365 sportsbook with the bet365 sportsbook bonus code "DIMERS".

Hopefully you've tailed along this season or at least utilized our Dimers Pro PGA Predictions model which turned out winners this year, hitting a +883 Masters parlay, identifying Scottie Scheffler to win the CJ CUP Byron Nelson and the PGA Championship, cashing ladder plays on Tommy Fleetwood at the Charles Schwab Challenge, Sepp Straka at the Memorial and Russell Henley and Fleetwood again at the Travelers.

Even though the golf season is winding down, Dimers Pro unlocks complete access to best bets and props for over a dozen leagues on Dimers.com, including NFL, WNBA, MLB, college sports and international soccer.

Find out how to start your free Dimers Pro trial by hitting the button below.

Who Will Win the 2025 TOUR Championship?

Below are the five most likely winners of the 2025 TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club, the final stop of the FedExCup Playoffs.

These predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:

Scottie Scheffler (Win: 34.9%) - Armed with the highest win probability in the field, Scheffler comes off an emphatic spring with a dominant victory at the PGA Championship and another major triumph at The Open Championship in July and looks to defend his title at the TOUR Championship.

Tommy Fleetwood (Win: 8.3%) - Fleetwood has been in the thick of things lately—leading into the final round at Memphis and narrowly missing his first PGA TOUR title, adding to a string of runner-up and top-five finishes.

Rory McIlroy (Win: 7.1%) - After capturing his Green Jacket, McIlroy now looks to break his own record of three FedExCup championships after a T12 at the BMW Championship.

Russell Henley (Win: 4.4%) - Henley looks solid heading into East Lake where he tied for 4th at the 2024 TOUR Championship, but has failed to crack the Top 10 in the first two rounds of the FedExCup Playoffs.

Robert MacIntyre (Win: 3.2%) - Though he lost in a heartbreaker, MacIntyre should bring confidence from recent play: he finished runner-up at the 2025 U.S. Open and flashed a T7 at The Open. He finished T17 at East Lake last year.

What is the 2025 TOUR Championship Course and Layout?

The PGA TOUR wraps up the season in Atlanta, Georgia, with the 2025 TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club from August 21-24. The top 30 players in the FedExCup standings will compete for the $40 million purse, and with starting strokes eliminated after six years, every golfer begins at even par.

East Lake returns to its traditional par 70 layout this year, stretching to 7,440 yards with four par 3s and just two par 5s. The biggest change comes at the 14th hole, which reverts from a 580-yard par 5 back to a challenging par 4, creating one of the course’s most demanding stretches. Despite its difficulty, East Lake has yielded low scores in recent years, with scoring averages dipping to 68.62 in 2024.

The fairways are wide and while water is in play on eight holes, the tricky corners and odd angles are few and far between, benefitting the strong drivers and long-distance approach masters.

Course familiarity will play a key role, as veterans with experience at East Lake’s unique setup should benefit from knowing where mistakes can pile up. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler looks to repeat, but with no strokes advantage and all 30 players starting level, this year’s TOUR Championship  could be one of the most competitive finales in recent memory.

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

Dimers' TOUR Championship Best Bets

We're looking at the golfers that our model has identified with a higher probability to win than that implied by the sportsbook odds. Only 30 golfers will tee it up this weekend, making the value slim but easy to find.

We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for these golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.

Tommy Fleetwood (+1400 on DraftKings)

Is it finally, finally Tommy Fleetwood's time?

The Englishman enters East Lake in prime form, opening the FedExCup Playoffs with T3 and T4 finishes while stringing together 11 consecutive sub-70 rounds. Despite being winless in his PGA TOUR career, he’s been a model of consistency—five top-five finishes in his last 10 starts, highlighted by a runner-up at the Travelers Championship.

Fleetwood’s ball-striking continues to set him apart, ranking 7th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach and 3rd overall in Strokes Gained: Total

In two tries at East Lake, he’s finished with a T6 in 2023 and a -10 finish last year. If he can ride his hot hand and battle the pressure of an elite field, this could finally be the week he breaks through for his first PGA TOUR victory.

At 8.3% to win, fair odds for Fleetwood would be just +1100 giving us some nice value. He's also a play for his third straight Top 5 at +225, with our 35.3% probability implying fair odds of +180.

Harry Hall (+5500 on bet365)

Hall arrives at East Lake as another one of the hottest players on TOUR, riding a strong short game that has carried him to three top-10s and seven top-20s in his last 10 starts.

He punched his ticket to the TOUR Championship in dramatic fashion, jumping from 45th to 26th in the FedExCup standings with a solo sixth at Caves Valley, the only golfer to jump inside the bubble.

While his subpar driver isn’t the best fit for East Lake, Hall offsets it with an elite touch on the greens, ranking among the best in putting.

With five top-10 finishes this season and momentum on his side, Hall has clear betting value to compete with the best at his East Lake debut.

He's our ladder play this week with value in each of these markets:

• To Win: 2.8% at +5500 (fair at +3500)
• Top 5: 19.4% at +650 (fair at +415)
• Top 10: 38.6% at +225 (fair at +160)

New to bet365? $5 on Hall to win gets you a $150 new-user bonus, win or lose.

+575 Head-to-Head Matchups Parlay

Our last play this week is a three-leg parlay built using our Head-to-Head Predictions tool.

We've identified three lopsided matches where our model gives a clear edge to one golfer to finish higher than the other over the course of the tournament.

At +575 odds, we're backing Harris English, Nick Taylor and Harry Hall to all beat their opponent. Here's how each matchup breaks down:

Harris English to beat Chris Gotterup (-130)

We love the "English" in at East Lake don't we?

At 56.0% to win and a 4.0% probability of a tie, the DimersBOT strongly favors Harris English over Chris Gotterup this week. The books give Gotterup a 50% chance at +100 odds but our model projects him with just a 40.0% chance. 

After a hot string of 1st, third and T10, Gotterup tripped up with a T54 and T33 in the playoffs while English has beat him H2H in both events.

Nick Taylor to beat Sungjae Im (-110)

Neither of these golfers has shown much lately, and while Im managed a T17 at the FedEx St. Jude championship, he's been T40 or worse in six of his last eight events while Taylor has 5 Top 25s or better in that same span.

Taylor gets the H2H edge with a 57.8% probability to win which is value on its own. He draws a 53.1% probability of a Top 20 compared to just 38.7% for Im in just a 30-man field.

Harry Hall to beat Corey Conners (+100)

We'll back our man Harry Hall in one more way this week with plus-money value to beat Canadian Corey Conners at East Lake.

Hall is both riding hot form and gets a predicted advantage of 56.1% with implied probability of just 50%, with our model saying Conners is incorrectly favored in this matchup.

Conners has stumbled a lot lately, with a T10 at the Open his lone Top 20 finish since May and has not cracked the Top 20 in three tries at East Lake.

Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

• PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
• Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
• Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
• PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR

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