2025 PGA Championship Parlay and Matchup Picks at Quail Hollow featuring Cameron Smith, Joaquin Niemann

The 2025 PGA Championship is here and our coverage of the TOUR action rolls on from Quail Hollow. Following our look at the PGA Championship tee times in our early preview, our best bets and winner picks, and our full PGA Championship predictions, it's time to look at some parlay action with a little PGA vs. LIV head-to-head matchup.

Betting on winners and who will finish in the Top 5, 10 and 20 markets gets all the attention around golf tournaments, but betting on head-to-head matchups can be an equally lucrative and entertaining experience for golf bettors.

If you are betting on winners, check out Dimers' full PGA Championship predictions and remember that a $5 bet on any golfer can get you a $150 new-user bonus at bet365 sportsbook with the bet365 bonus code DIMERS.

We have an in-house tool designed for pitting golfers against one another and simulating the results. We can see who will finish higher in their head-to-head matchup, either after Round 1 or over the course of the entire tournament, thanks to our model simulating the PGA Championship over 10,000 times.

With a handy "Fair Odds" to "Percentages" toggle, you can always check to see if there's value in any given matchup, and with a Dimers Pro subscription, you can simulate unlimited matchups for every tournament.

Dimers Pro unlocks complete access to all of our Golf Predictions as well as best bets and props for over a dozen leagues on Dimers.com, including NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, college sports and international soccer. Find out how to join for less than $1/day by hitting the button below.

2025 PGA Championship Parlay Picks at +570 Odds

With the LIV crew in town, we're having some fun and using four matchups that pit a PGA golfer against a LIV golfer. We're not picking sides in the feud, just going with the guy that DimersBOT supports the most in each matchup.

To make this parlay, we'll be using the Head-to-Head matchups available at DraftKings. We'll enter both golfers into our H2H Predictor, select the Tournament-long option, and see which golfer gets the advantage for the weekend.

We cashed in with this at The Masters - now let's see if we can go back-to-back at the next major.

Leg 1: Aaron Rai to beat Sergio Garcia

First up in our PGA vs. LIV battle is the only guy from the TOUR that we're backing, Englishman Aaron Rai.

Rai has flashed plenty of upside this year, finishing T4 for his best result at the Mexico Open and mixing in four more Top 20s. He finished T27 at the Masters. He doesn't drive the ball far, but he's 2nd in accuracy against the TOUR field, which could give him an edge with the narrow fairways.

Garcia has finished 50th and T42 in his past two LIV events and missed the cut at the Master, making three straight events played with a finish of +2 or worse. He's missed the cut at 7 consecutive PGA Championships.

Rai draws a 52.6% probability from DimersBOT to win this matchup head-to-head over the full tournament, with a 5.9% probability of a tie, and he edges out Garcia for a Top 20 finish by a margin of 25.0% to 17.5%.

Leg 2: Joaquin Niemann to beat Ludvig Aberg

It has been a tough year for Ludvig Aberg, who still ranks 9th in FedExCup points, thanks to a win and two other Top 10 finishes. However, outside of those great results, he's got two missed cuts, a withdrawal and three finishes outside the Top 40, including a T60 just last week. He ranks 110th in total Strokes Gained, due to in accurate driver and a tough putting output where he ranks 153rd, and missed the cut in his lone PGA Championship appearance (2024).

Niemann, on the other hand is primed for a breakout at a major. With LIV this year, he's won three events, a pair of Top 20s and two T33s. He finishes T29 at the Masters at even par.

The Chilean has had mixed results at the PGA Championship, mixing two missed cuts with a T39, T30 and T23 in his past five appearances.

Niemann gets a 52.1% probability to beat Aberg straight up, with a 5.1% probability of a tie. He's a 34.5% probability to finish Top 20 against Niemann's 27.9%.

Leg 3: Cameron Smith to beat Will Zalatoris

Finally, we'll close out with our strongest probability of them all, Australian Cam Smith to beat Will Zalatoris at Quail Hollow.

Zalatoris has one Top 20 this year, finishing outside the Top 40 in five events, including a missed cut at The Masters.

He's a medium fit for this course, ranking 56th in Driving accuracy and 19th on Approach, but struggles mightily with the putter.

While Cam Smith hasn't excelled at the PGA Championship, he's in much better form this year. Save for a missed cut at Augusta, his worst finish is a solo 30th, and since then, he's finished T19, T9, T5 and T7.

Smith isn't much better at driving the ball and lacks the approach upside that Zalatoris has, but he's dangerous around the green and with the putter, giving him the analytical edge in the short game.

At 57.3%, not only is this our strongest probability for a head-to-head win out of these three, it's also our best value at -105 odds.

Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

• PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including the PGA Championship and every major.
• Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
• Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
• PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR

Dimers and Responsible Gambling

Please remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Responsible gambling means setting limits, staying in control, and understanding that luck is just part of the game. Make informed choices, set a budget, and know when to take a break. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.