2025 Open Championship: Four Storylines to Watch at Royal Portrush

The final major of the 2025 golf season is here, and the world’s best have arrived in Northern Ireland for the 153rd Open Championship at Royal Portrush. With a rich history, treacherous links terrain, and swirling winds off the Atlantic, The Open has a unique ability to crown both legends and underdogs.

From potential history-makers to national pride and redemption arcs, here are four storylines to watch as the Claret Jug awaits.

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1. Back to Back? Xander Schauffele Looks to Join Elite Ranks

Xander Schauffele’s victory at the 2025 PGA Championship was his long-awaited first major—now he’s got a chance to make even more history. With a win this week, Schauffele would become the first golfer to go back-to-back at the Open Championship since Padraig Harrington in 2007-08. Only three other men have successfully defended an Open title in the last 50 years: Harrington, Tiger Woods (2005-06), and Tom Watson (1982-83).

While the feat would be historic, the odds—and the course—aren’t in Schauffele’s favor. Royal Portrush demands precision off the tee and a creative short game, neither of which align well with Schauffele’s 2025 driving statsin which he ranks 112th off the tee and 156th in accuracy.

DimersBOT gives him just a 2.2% chance to win at odds of +2500, with a 36.8% probability to finish Top 20 (+125). This marks a pivotal test in Schauffele’s evolution—can he contend at a venue that punishes errant driving?

2. Rory Returns Home with Grand Slam in Hand

For Rory McIlroy, the majors are no longer a reminder of the missing piece—it’s where his story circles back.

Having finally captured the green jacket at Augusta this April to complete the career Grand Slam, McIlroy now returns to the event that cemented his legacy a decade ago. His 2014 Open win at Royal Liverpool marked the last year in which he won a major title until his Masters win, and he arrives at Royal Portrush as both the hometown hero and a man playing some of the best golf of his career, and fresh off a T2 in Scotland.

Portrush will be buzzing with energy, not unlike 2019 when fellow Irishman Shane Lowry lifted the Claret Jug on these very fairways. But for McIlroy, this week carries even more personal weight—he missed the cut in that 2024 edition (his last cut in a major) despite being a tournament favorite.

Now, with the Grand Slam finally complete and a raucous Northern Irish crowd at his back, the pressure shifts from completing the journey to defining his legacy. DimersBOT marks him with a 5.4% to win.

3. Scottie Scheffler Eyes His Third Major—and the Career Grand Slam Path

Scottie Scheffler’s 2025 season has been one for the ages. Already a multiple-time winner this year, the World No. 1 arrives at Royal Portrush seeking the only major missing from his resume—The Open Championship.

A win here would leave just the U.S. Open remaining to complete the Career Grand Slam, a feat only five men in golf history have ever achieved.

Though Scheffler hasn’t hoisted the Claret Jug yet, he’s been consistently close: four Top 10s in five career Open appearances, including a T8 at Hoylake last year. DimersBOT projects a 64.2% chance of another Top 10 and gives him a 21.4% chance to win outright at +550—making him the clear statistical favorite.

After making headlines on Tuesday morning about his casual reception to winning a golf tournament, Scheffler has a chance to let his clubs do the talking and further cement his dominance.

He is one of our best values to win The Open, after all.

4. Royal Portrush Takes Center Stage Once Again

The 153rd Open Championship returns to the coast of Northern Ireland as Royal Portrush Golf Club plays host to golf’s oldest and most prestigious major.

Portrush is renowned for its towering dunes, coastal winds, and firm, unforgiving fairways that force players into a test of shot-making and resilience. The Dunluce Links was revamped for its 2019 return, where Shane Lowry thrilled home fans with an iconic six-shot win.

Portrush is no ordinary links. It’s greener and more lush than the baked-out Scottish classics like St. Andrews and Royal Troon, but don’t confuse that for softness—unless rain is persistent, it can still play firm, and it rewards accurate drivers above all else.

Its dramatic elevation changes and perched greens demand aerial control and precise distance, especially in swirling winds. Players will face both physical and mental tests on uneven terrain that forces a blend of creativity, caution and timely risks. If the rain holds off and the wind kicks up, Portrush could emerge as the true star of the week.

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