2025 NFL Predictions: Five Bets You Need to Lock in For Week 1 Now

The countdown is officially on—less than 50 days until the 2025 NFL season kicks off on Thursday, September 4th with the Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles vs. the Dallas Cowboys. And while most fans are sweating training camp battles or fantasy rankings, the sharpest bettors are already hunting for early value. At Dimers, we’ve been hard at work dissecting every line, edge, and projection through our superpowered NFL Predictions model built to pinpoint bets that consistently beat the sportsbooks.

Using this data, we’ve identified five NFL Week 1 bets you should make right now—before the market shifts and value dries up.

Granted, injuries can happen between now and then, but that's no more likely than in the middle of a game that we've already got action on. If you're keen to wait, then do so by all means, but you may find worse lines and poor odds the closer we get to Week 1 depending on which sportsbooks apps are available to you.

RELATED: Dimers' Most Profitable NFL Teams from the 2024-25 Season

Each of these bets comes with a solid edge, favorable probability, and in some cases, early-season angles that the public hasn’t caught up to yet. Let’s dive in.

Five Week 1 NFL Bets to Make Now

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons

• Probability: 58.3%

• Edge: 5.5%

• Odds: -112 on FanDuel Sportsbook

Tampa Bay was one of 2024's quiet killers at the betting window, especially against weaker opponents.

The Bucs return Baker Mayfield and an underrated defense, holding teams to 22.6 points per game last season, as well as returning their top veterans on an offense that can explode. Meanwhile, the Falcons  kick off a new era with new HC Raheem Morris and last year's draft pick QB Michael Penix, as well as new defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich.

While this should all work out well for Atlanta in the long run, betting against a team in transition is one of the best early-season angles you can find. The Bucs narrowly lost both games vs. the Falcons last year and the last time a game between these two was closer than two points was in 2012.

Dimers' model gives Tampa a 58.3% chance to cover this short number, with a 5.5% edge, indicating fair odds of -140.

MORE: Buccaneers vs. Falcons Week 1 Full Game Betting Preview

2. Houston Texans +3 vs. Los Angeles Rams

• Probability: 58.2%

• Edge: 5.8%

• Odds: -110 on DraftKings Sportsbook

C.J. Stroud and the Texans were arguably the story of 2024, but not in the way they'd like to remember.

After starting the season 5-1, they went just 5-6 over the rest of the season, though they managed to right the ship and win a playoff game before losing to the Chiefs in the Divisional Round.

The Rams were a near mirror of the Texans, going 10-7, trouncing their Wild Card opponent before bowing out in the Divisional Round to a team that went to the Super Bowl in the Eagles.

They begin their redemption arcs against one another in 2025 and the DimersBOT is predicting another strong start for Houston against the aging Matt Stafford and a Rams defense that was below average last year.

Dimers’ model loves this early number, with our 5.8% edge suggesting fair odds of -140.

MORE: Texans vs. Rams Week 1 Full Game Betting Preview

3. San Francisco 49ers ML vs. Seattle Seahawks

• Probability: 58.5%

• Edge: 4.0%

• Odds: -120 on FanDuel Sportsbook

Brock Purdy and the 49ers were not the same team as they've been in recent years last season, but things look to be on the mend, literally, as a healthy Christian McCaffrey and on the mend Brandon Aiyuk will paint a much different picture on offense, even with Deebo Samuel off to Washington.

The Seahawks are a new-look team, swapping Geno Smith for Sam Darnold under center and trading away WR DK Metcalf to Pittsburgh. This series is 6-1 in favor of the Niners dating back to the 2022 season.

San Francisco wins this matchup almost 60% of the time according to our model, and laying -120 in a pure moneyline spot looks like incredible value on a superior team who just doled out a fresh $265M contract to Brock Purdy.

MORE: 49ers vs. Seahawks Week 1 Full Game Betting Preview

4. San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Under 45.5

• Probability: 57.4%

• Edge: 5.0%

• Odds: -110 on bet365 sportsbook

Sticking with San Francisco, this NFC West matchup with Seattle projects as a lower-scoring affair.

The 49ers’ defense should see positive regression to their more elite level, while the Seahawks are transitioning to new head coach Mike Macdonald—Baltimore’s former DC—who will likely slow things down. The total is set at 45.5, but Dimers’ model projects this one closer to 42. 

Between an offense that may not click right away and a 49ers defense looking for a return to peak form, it's not surprising to see the model favor the under with odds our model says should be -135 at best.

5. Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Under 46.5

• Probability: 56.7%

• Edge: 5.4%

• Odds: -105 on FanDuel Sportsbook

This game quietly has slugfest potential, in the most boring of ways, even though the Panthers were a historically bad defense last season. Fortunately for them, the Jaguars are marred with their own struggles.

Carolina doesn't have the weapons needed for Bryce Young to air it out unless he's taken a major leap this offseason. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's biggest offseason addition was Travis Hunter in the draft, who could be a generational talent, and CB Jourdan Loewis, who could slow down this sluggish Panthers offense even more.

Both teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in pace of play last year and our model believe the total here is inflated due to last year's defensive deficiencies, and thinks this total should be closer to 44.5.

Grab it early while it’s still above 46.

MORE: Panthers vs. Jaguars Week 1 Full Game Betting Preview

Try to Cash In Big with the Week 1 Parlay

If you’re feeling bold and want to roll all five of these bets into one parlay, you’d be looking at +2274 odds (based on current lines).

That means a $20 bet would return just under $500.

While parlays always carry more risk, these legs are backed by edges that our model flags as legitimate value spots. If even one or two lines move in the coming weeks, you could be kicking yourself for not locking them in now.

Final Thoughts

As we gear up for Week 1, the edge lies in getting ahead of the market. These five bets offer the clearest value from our latest ROI model, combining historical trends, offseason moves, and projection probabilities. The 2025 season is nearly here, and Dimers is once again your go-to for value-driven picks that move the needle.

So beat the books to the punch—lock in these Week 1 bets now, and stay ready for a season full of winners.

Dimers' 2025 NFL Season Betting Resources

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every individual matchup
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Futures Odds: Who will win Super Bowl LX?
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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