2025 John Deere Classic Picks, Odds, Predictions at TPC Deere Run with Ben Griffin as Heavy Favorite

The PGA TOUR heads to Silvis, IL for the 2025 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run,, teeing off from Thursday, July 3 through Sunday, July 6 over the Independence Day Weekend. A full field of 156 golfers tee it up on the 25th anniversary of the course hosting this event.

After a low-scoring, three-man playoff at the Rocket Classic, we now turn the page with our model's best bets and John Deere Classic predictions headlined by Ben Griffin as the favorite with some sweet value.

Dimers predictive golf model has run 1000s of simulations on the 2025 John Deere Classic, identifying intriguing bets in the winner and placement markets. Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks where a $5 bet on any golfer can get you a $150 new-user bonus at bet365 sportsbook with the bet365 sportsbook bonus code "DIMERS".

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. Our PGA predictions are sourced from the powerful Dimers Pro predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2024 and is turning out winners this year, hitting a +883 Masters parlay, identifying Scottie Scheffler to win the CJ CUP Byron Nelson, the PGA Championship, and most recently cashing ladder plays on Tommy Fleetwood at the Charles Schwab Challenge, Sepp Straka at the Memorial and Russell Henley and Fleetwood again at the Travelers.

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Who Will Win the 2025 John Deere Classic?

Below are the five most likely winners of the 2025 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run, the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:

What is the 2025 John Deere Classic Course and Layout?

The PGA TOUR rolls into Silvis, Illinois, this week for the 2025 John Deere Classic, marking the 25th anniversary of TPC Deere Run as host. Known for low scoring, this event has produced a winning total of 20-under or better in eight of the last 10 editions, including Davis Thompson’s record-setting -28 in 2024.

TPC Deere Run is a par-71 layout stretching 7,289 yards across the scenic Mid-Mississippi River Valley. The course features bentgrass greens, dramatic elevation changes, and a blend of birdie chances and classic risk-reward setups.

This year’s tournament features a full 156-player field competing for an $8.4 million purse and 500 FedExCup points. A cut will be made to the top 65 and ties after 36 holes. With wide scoring windows and ideal summer conditions expected, fans should once again expect the field to light up the leaderboard.

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

John Deere Classic Betting Preview and Picks

We're looking at the golfers that our model has identified with a higher probability to win than that implied by the sportsbook odds. Many big names are out of the field but with 156 golfers in play, there's plenty of value to be found.

We'll also highlight some standout prop and placement bets if we find any appealing value when perusing the board

Ben Griffin (+1650 on Bet365)

Ben Griffin returns to TPC Deere Run for just the second time, but his debut last year was a strong T5—and he arrives this week playing the best golf of his career.

With two wins in 2025 and a run of six straight top-15 finishes, including a T13 last week in Detroit, Griffin now ranks sixth in the FedExCup standings and continues to build momentum.

He ranks 13th on TOUR in SG: Total (+1.071) and is above average across the board, including 21st in SG: Tee-to-Green and 35th in putting—making him a strong fit for a low-scoring setup like Deere Run.

Griffin leads the Dimers model with a 9.3% win probability and a 57.4% chance to finish top 20—offering value at every placement, especially with odds of +360 (Top 5), +200 (Top 10), and -105 (Top 20).

He’s the model’s favorite this week and offers a prime ladder betting opportunity based on the probabilities above, with his fair odds to win closer to +1000.

Jason Day (+2700 on Bet365)

After coming up just short at the Travelers Championship, where he finished T4 and hit four straight rounds under par, including two 66s to stay near the lead, Jason Day is another top Dimers pick this week at TPC Deere Run.

His performance showed renewed short-game sharpness and confidence, bringing that momentum to Deere Run .

Day finished T23 at last year’s John Deere Classic and posted sub-70 scores in all four rounds, signaling comfort with TPC Deere Run’s scoring-friendly bentgrass greens and risk–reward layout. He pairs that course familiarity with a second-best in the field 6.0% win chance, placing him not just among the top contenders but op value picks.

Day ranks 41st in SG: Total (+0.600) this season, driven by a strong short game. He’s 14th in SG: Around-the-Green (+0.355), while also solid in SG: Tee-to-Green (44th). His putting (+0.081) and approach (+0.090) are average, but his all-around consistency has led to four top-10 finishes in 2025, including a T8 at the Masters and aforementioned T4 at the Travelers.

With ladder-style odds of +550 (Top 5), +280 (Top 10), +135 (Top 20), Day offers good value across the board.

Fair odds for Day to win would be +1570 for a big-time edge at +2700 odds.

Bud Cauley (+4000 on DraftKings)

14-year TOUR vet Bud Cauley has quietly put together one of the most impressive seasons among non-winners, collecting four top-six finishes and ranking 11th in adjusted scoring. Though not the most consistent week-to-week, he's delivered twice as many top-10s as missed cuts in 2025.

Cauley ranks 15th in SG: Total (+1.011), fueled by elite approach play (16th in SG: Approach) and strong tee-to-green numbers overall (22nd). His profile fits TPC Deere Run perfectly, where he’ll be making his eighth career start.

With a 2.9% win probability and 11.5% chance to finish Top 5, Cauley offers upside at longshot odds of +4500 on BetRivers, though his value drops off outside his Top 5 finish. If his irons stay sharp, he’s a serious contender for another high finish with the best of the best out of the field this week. Play him at anything above +3350 for value.

Sami Valimaki (+10000 on FanDuel)

If you're looking for a longshot with real upside, Sami Valimaki fits the bill at +10000 on FanDuel. He owns a 1.0% win probability, but his Top 20 chances (22.1%) suggest much more upside than many other golfers with a similar win probability. 

Valimaki ranks 8th on TOUR in SG: Putting (+0.637) and has finished Top 20 in five of his last nine starts, including a T12 here at TPC Deere Run last year at -20 and a Top 20 last week at the Rocket Classic. He’s also statistically the fourth-best player in the field over the last three months—quietly trending in all the right ways.

If he can manage the driver, the rest of his game is plenty sharp to contend on a layout that rewards hot putters. For bettors hunting deep value, Valimaki is a compelling dark horse, especially when considering he is as low as +7500 on other books.

2025 John Deere Classic Prop Bets

You can find more winners with value by digging in to our full John Deere Classic predictions with Dimers Pro.

In addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got placement bet value to consider for this week's 2025 John Deere Classic as well.

Denny McCarthy Top 10 (+300 on DraftKings)

Denny McCarthy is one of the most reliable course horses at TPC Deere Run, posting three straight top-10 finishes: T6 in 2022 and 2023, and T7 last year. His scoring average over that span is an elite 66.58.

While his tee-to-green numbers are below average (103rd SG: Tee-to-Green), McCarthy ranks 9th in SG: Putting (+0.604), and that’s been more than enough on a layout that rewards strong putters. He’s also coming off a solid T12 at the Travelers.

At +300, McCarthy’s 24.5% Top 10 probability offers fair value. With course history and form on his side, he’s a strong candidate to extend his top-10 streak to four straight years.

Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR

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