2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks, Odds, Predictions: Three Golfers to Contend at TPC Southwind

The regular season of the PGA TOUR is in the bag and the FedExCup Playoffs being with the FedEx St. Jude Championship, teeing off at TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN from Thursday, August 7th through Sunday, August 10th.

We were on a little hot streak to end the season, culminating in cashing a pair of Alex Noren ladder plays in back-to-back weeks, and we're looking to roll that momentum into this three-week run of FedExCup Playoff tournaments before the fall session.

Though the fields will be smaller for these tournaments, our predictive golf model works the same, simulating the entire tournament to identify outright winner and Top 5/10/20 probabilities for every player competing, looking for valuable bets to make along the way.

These best bets are here to help guide your outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks for the FedExCup Playoffs, where a $5 bet on any golfer can get you a $150 new-user bonus at bet365 sportsbook with the bet365 sportsbook bonus code "DIMERS".

Hopefully you've tailed along this season or at least utilized our Dimers Pro PGA Predictions model which turned out winners this year, hitting a +883 Masters parlay, identifying Scottie Scheffler to win the CJ CUP Byron Nelson and the PGA Championship, cashing ladder plays on Tommy Fleetwood at the Charles Schwab Challenge, Sepp Straka at the Memorial and Russell Henley and Fleetwood again at the Travelers.

Even though the golf season is winding down, Dimers Pro unlocks complete access to best bets and props for over a dozen leagues on Dimers.com, including NFL, WNBA, MLB, college sports and international soccer.

Find out how to join for less than $1/day by hitting the button below.

Who Will Win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship?

Below are the five most likely winners of the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, the first stop of the FedExCup Playoffs.

These predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:

Scottie Scheffler (Win 27.4%) — The world No. 1 enters the FedEx St. Jude Championship off another dominant major season, winning both the PGA Championship and The Open. He hasn't finished outside the Top 10 since March.

Russell Henley (Win 4.8%) — Henley, who claimed his latest victory at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational with clutch play down the stretch brings steady form and a knack for momentum-building as he enters the playoffs with four straight T10 or better finishes.

Tommy Fleetwood (Win 3.6%) — Fleetwood’s consistent ball-striking and ability to contend under pressure make him a perennial threat in formats like the playoffs; while he's been chasing that win with some heartbreaking close calls, he often hovers near the top of leaderboards with five single-digit placement finishes this year.

Xander Schauffele (Win 3.5%) — Despite a winless 2025, Schauffele's career consistency makes him as much of a threat as any, in high-stakes events such as this week’s playoff opener, noted by his second-shortest sportsbook odds.

Matt Fitzpatrick (Win 2.8%) — Fitzpatrick, who finished T8 at the 2025 PGA Championship and T4 at The Open, continues to be a steady contender with strong finish percentages even if victories are rare. He has four-straight T8 or better finishes.

What is the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship Course and Layout?

The FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind kicks off the 2025 FedExCup Playoffs as the first of three postseason events on the PGA TOUR. This week, 69 of the 70 qualified players will compete with Rory McIlroy sitting out. With only the top 50 in the FedExCup standings advancing after this event, plenty of players on the bubble will be fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive, adding extra drama to an already high-stakes week.

TPC Southwind’s 7,288-yard, par-70 layout is a demanding test, defined by its bermudagrass greens, tight fairways, and water hazards that lurk on 11 of the 18 holes. In the past 20 years, no PGA TOUR venue has produced more water balls than Southwind, a testament to its constant demand for accuracy.

While approach play is the most critical skill for success at Southwind, total driving will be just as important this week. The course’s 12 doglegs, narrow landing zones, and strategically placed bunkers require precision off the tee to set up scoring chances. Players who can keep the ball dry and avoid the rough will have a significant advantage, with scrambling ability also coming into play. Putting will help those who don't excel on approach, but it is unlikely to separate the field, shifting the spotlight to tee-to-green excellence—especially in mid-length play from 100-200 yards out.

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

The FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Preview

We're looking at the golfers that our model has identified with a higher probability to win than that implied by the sportsbook odds. There are just 69 golfers pf the FedExCup top 70 in play, but there's still value to be found.

We'll also highlight some standout prop and placement bets if we find any appealing value when perusing the board.

Scottie Scheffler (+310 on Bet365)

Despite this being the smallest field he's competed against this season, this isn't even the shortest price we've seen on Scheffler pre-tournament.

He's five times as likely to win the FedExCup St. Jude Championship as the next most likely golfer, Russell Henley, and there's nothing in his way to keep him from doing so.

Scheffler hasn't finished outside the Top 10 since March, winning four of his last eight tournaments, including two majors.

His dominance is reason alone to back him, but there's also a little bit of value here as his 27.4% probability from the DimersBOT would make fair odds of +265, a 3.0% edge against +310 at Bet365 where you can get the best odds.

New to bet365? $5 on Scheffler to win gets you a $150 new-user bonus, win or lose.

Russell Henley (+3000 on DraftKings)

Our next winner pick is on Russell Henley who enters the FedEx St. Jude Championship as one of the most consistent players on TOUR this season, with nine top-10 finishes—second only to Scottie Scheffler’s 13.

Henley has posted four straight top-10s, including a T2 at the Travelers Championship and top-10s in both the U.S. Open and The Open Championship.

His track record at TPC Southwind is pretty strong as well, highlighted by a solo sixth in 2023 and a T8 in 2020.

Statistically, Henley has been one of the most well-rounded players in 2025, sitting fifth in total strokes gained (+1.345) thanks to elite iron play (14th in approach, +0.573) and a sharp short game (6th around-the-green, +0.505). Even with an average week off the tee, his steady ball-striking and reliable putting make him a threat on a demanding layout like Southwind.

Already a winner this season at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Henley has the form, confidence, and course history to contend for a second title and plant his flag as an unquestionable Top 5 golfer this year.

At +3000, he offers solid value as our 4.8% probability makes for fair odds of +1980 - that's over a $100 difference in payout for a $10 bettor.

Ladder play: Henley gets an edge in each of his placement markets this week based on the odds at DraftKings. He's a play if you can get these listed odds or better for each market: Top 5 (+390), Top 10 (+180) and Top 20 (-130).

Harry Hall (+7500 on Bet365)

Harry Hall heads to TPC Southwind riding one of the most consistent stretches of his career, finsihng in the Top 20 in 7 of his last 10 events. His recent run includes a T9 at the Travelers Championship, T6 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and a pair of other top-15s over his last five starts.

The Englishman’s ability to keep momentum rolling into bigger events makes him a sneaky contender despite this being his debut appearance at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Statistically, Hall’s weapon is the flatstick—he leads the TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting (+0.874) and putts per round (27.59) - that's not going to give him as much of an advantage here as it would on other course, it can't be brushed aside.

And that's important as his tee-to-green and approach numbers leave a bit to be desired, but he's improved over his past five starts, highlighted by sharper approach play (+0.193) and short-game touch (+0.438), an even bigger boon to his already 2nd-ranked Par 4 scoring and 9th-ranked bogey avoidance.

Debut winners at TPC Southwind are rare—last achieved by Daniel Berger in 2016—but Hall’s current blend of elite scoring and consistent results makes him a dark horse candidate to break that streak in Memphis.

He's as long as +7500 on bet365, with our fair odds oat +4900 based on our 2.0% probability for Hall to win.

Ladder play: Just like Henley, Hall gets an edge in each of his placement markets this week based on the odds at bet365. He's a play if you can get these listed odds or better for each market: Top 5 at 11.3% (+780), Top 10 at 21.8% (+360) and Top 20 at 42.1% (+135).

Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

• PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
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• Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
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