2025 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks, Odds, Predictions and Betting Preview at TPC Craig Ranch

After last week's team event at the Zurich Classic, we're back to the individual field with THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, TX from Thursday, May 1 through Sunday, May 4.

Scottie Scheffler is the runaway favorite at +300 the next closest golfer at +2000, Jordan Spieth.

With two weeks before the PGA Championship, many big names are taking this event off, but with a $9.9M purse on the line, Scheffler is teeing off as he looks for his first win of 2025.

Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations with the field in this tournament, identifying intriguing bets in the winner and placement markets. Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks where a $5 bet on any golfer can get you a $150 new-user bonus at bet365 sportsbook with the bet365 bonus code DIMERS.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. Our PGA predictions are sourced from the powerful Dimers Pro predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2024 and got off to a productive start this year, most recently hitting our +883 Masters parlay.

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Who Will Win the 2025 CJ CUP Byron Nelson?

Here are the five most likely winners of the 2025 CJ CUP Byron Nelson, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5/10/20:

2025 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Betting Preview

A Pete Dye design that's hosted this event for over 30 years, Harbour Town Golf Links has the unique offering of one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour, yet still a challenging one to navigate. With hanging limbs and green-adjacent bunkers everywhere, hazards abound all over the 7,213-yard Par 71.

Another signature event, a $20 million purse is one the line, with Scottie Scheffler looking to take home the biggest chunk in defense of his 2024 win. The 72-hole record is 262 set by Webb Simpson in 2020.

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

Best Bets to Win the 2025 CJ CUP Byron Nelson

TPC Craig Ranch presents one of the easiest courses on the PGA TOUR for the CJ CUP Byron Nelson. The fairways are wide, the green are big and the hazards are few. Long drives and putting will determine this week's winner over four rounds.

 We're looking at the golfers that our model has identified with a higher probability to win than that implied by the sportsbook odds, from some Top 5 contenders to longshot dark horses. 

Scottie Scheffler (+300 on BetMGM)

+300 is probably the shortest price we'd ever recommend on betting that golfer to win, but the value is clear when looking at our model's projections.

Scottie Scheffler's closest competition on the board is Justin Spieth at +2000 and he is a whopping 30.2% favorite to win by our model.

Breaking down the reasons why the World No. 1 golfer can win seem like overkill - he's among the best in the game. Beyond the fact that Scheffler is a play on value, he'd certainly like to bag a win before the PGA Championship in two weeks. He finished three strokes off the lead for a T5 here back in the 2022-23 season.

His odds of +300 on BetMGM are better than any other book out there, implying just a 25% probability to win, a full 5.2% lower than what our model projects and he's the only golfer with minus odds to finish in the Top 5.

Sungjae Im (+2500 on BetMGM)

Our next play is not only our second-most likely winner, but a golfer who's recent form has our model signaling him with a slight edge.

Sungjae Im enters THE CJ CUP on a rebound. After starting the year with a 3rd and 4th place finish in his first three vents, he hit a tough stretch where he finished inside the Top 20 just once in seven events But after a T5 at the Masters and a T11 two weeks ago at the RB Heritage, he looks back in the mix. He's 22nd in both Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Birdie Average, while his putting average is 6th on TOUR

His odds of +2500 imply just a 3.8% probability, while our 4.5% prediction would make his fair odds at +2120. For a small side play, look at him to finish Top 20, with his odds of +125 aligning with our 45.1% probability.

Chan Kim (+10000 on FanDuel)

The 35-year old probably wishes he skipped last week's team event at the Zurich Classic, missing the cut after finishing T5 and T7 in back-to-back events.

He'll look to get back into his competitive form when he tees off at TPC Craig Ranch and while he's not a perfect fit - 81st in putting, 59th in driving accuracy, 59th in birdie average - he's above the field average in each of those marks.

Our model projects him with just a 1.1% probability to win, however that implies fair odds of +8990, while we get +10000 here. At a $10 bet, that's a difference of over $100 in payout.

Best Prop Bets for the 2025 CJ CUP Byron Nelson

You can find more winners with value by digging in to our full CJ CUP Byron Nelson Predictions with Dimers Pro.

Plus, in addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got a few placement and unique market bets to consider for this week's CJ CUP Byron Nelson as well. As well as being value plays as single wagers, consider playing these in a parlay to potentially rack up some serious profits.

Mackenzie Hughes - Top Canadian (+180)

We're switching gears a bit this week with a look at how to use our model's projection in a different market - top nationality props.

First we'll look at the Top Canadian, where Mackenzie Hughes is second on the board at +180 behind Taylor Pendrith at +130.

Our model ever so slightly favors Pendrith, giving him a 35.6% probability to finish Top 20, compared to 32.1% for Hughes.

The only other two Canadians in this field are Adam Svensson (12.8%) and Ben Silverman (7.6%), so this is largely a two-man race per our model.

Our Head-to-Head tool gives Hughes a 45.1% probability to beat out Pendrith - at +180 odds and the other two Canadians distant underdogs, Hughes looks like the play.

Stephan Jaeger - Top European (+750)

Our other nationality prop is a longer odds play with a bigger pool of qualified golfers, but our model is favoring one over them all.

Stephan Jaeger lands in our Top 15 projected winners, and has our 10th-highest probability to finish To p10.

For a side play, consider him as the top German at +130, meaning he only need to edge our three other golfers, the closest of whom we project at just 16.6% probability for a Top 20 finish, Matti Schmid.

Zach Johnson Top 20 (+450)

At a 24.3% probability, the 12x PGA TOUR winner should be just +310 to nab a Top 20 finish according to our model.

Like Chan Kim, Johnson was picking up some momentum before the Zurich Classic, posting his two best finishes at T18 at Valero and then a solo 8th at the Masters.

This field is considerably weaker on much easier course, so if Johnson can bring the game he brought to Augusta, he could find himself int he mix to win come Moving Day and the final round.

His driving distance leaves much to be desired, but his 11th-ranked putter could be the key this weekend at TPC Craig Ranch.

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