2025 BMW Championship Picks, Odds, Predictions: Three Golfers to Bet on at FedExCup Playoffs

The PGA TOUR's FedExCup Playoffs continue with the BMW Championship, teeing off at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, MD from Thursday, August 14th through Sunday, August 17th.

Though our pre-tournament pick of Harry Hall got off to a hot start last week, he ultimately fell short along with Scottie Scheffler one stroke shy, but we're back for the second tournament of the playoffs.

Though the fields will be smaller for these final tournaments, our predictive golf model works the same, simulating the entire tournament to identify outright winner and Top 5/10/20 probabilities for every player competing, looking for valuable bets to make along the way.

These best bets are here to help guide your outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks for the FedExCup Playoffs, where a $5 bet on any golfer can get you a $150 new-user bonus at bet365 sportsbook with the bet365 sportsbook bonus code "DIMERS".

Hopefully you've tailed along this season or at least utilized our Dimers Pro PGA Predictions model which turned out winners this year, hitting a +883 Masters parlay, identifying Scottie Scheffler to win the CJ CUP Byron Nelson and the PGA Championship, cashing ladder plays on Tommy Fleetwood at the Charles Schwab Challenge, Sepp Straka at the Memorial and Russell Henley and Fleetwood again at the Travelers.

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Who Will Win the 2025 BMW Championship?

Below are the five most likely winners of the 2025 BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club, the second stop of the FedExCup Playoffs.

These predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:

Scottie Scheffler - With a commanding 27.0% win probability and 59.7% chance to finish in the top 5, Scheffler is expected to dominate again after tying for 3rd at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, just one stroke shy of the playoff.

Rory McIlroy - Predicted with a modest 7.9% win chance and 29.9% for a top-5, McIlroy wasn’t in the Memphis field and makes his 2025 playoffs debut this weekend.

Tommy Fleetwood - Fleetwood nearly potted a win after a dominant start at the FedEx St. Jude Championship—leading late before finishing tied 3rd.

Russell Henley - With a 5.3% win probability and 21.5% for a top-5, Henley finished tied for 17th — solid enough to advance, though a notch below the top tier in Memphis 

J.J. Spaun - Given a 3.2% chance to win and 17.8% for a top-5, Spaun enters this next round after an excruciating three-hole playoff loss to Justin Rose.

What is the 2025 BMW Championship Course and Layout?

The 2025 BMW Championship marks the second leg of the FedExCup Playoffs, with the field cut from 70 to 50 after last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. Only the top 30 will survive this week at Caves Valley Golf Club and earn a trip to East Lake for the TOUR Championship. The stakes are high with a $20 million purse and season-defining points on the line.

Caves Valley returns to the PGA TOUR for the first time since hosting the BMW in 2021. However, the course players will face now is far more punishing. An extensive renovation reworked numerous holes, changed the scoring and increased overall difficulty with faster putting surfaces. The scorecard has shifted from a par 72 to a par 70 while now stretching to 7,601 yards—one of the longest on TOUR—placing a premium on both length and accuracy.

Strategically tightened landing zones, thicker rough, and recontoured greens demand precision. With fewer scoring opportunities, success hinges on elite mid-to-long iron play, sharp putting on bentgrass, and scoring on challenging par 4s. Driving distance and off-the-tee performance will also be key, as this is a driver-heavy layout that rewards power and those who excel in SG: Approach on longer distances will be best positioned to survive the cut to 30 and keep their FedExCup dreams alive.

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

Dimers' BMW Championship Betting Preview

We're looking at the golfers that our model has identified with a higher probability to win than that implied by the sportsbook odds. There are just 49 golfers of the FedExCup top 50 in play with Sepp Straka an early withdrawal due to personal reasons, but there's still value to be found.

We'll also highlight some standout prop and placement bets if we find any appealing value when perusing the board.

Russell Henley (+3300 on Bet365)

Though we were hoping for more, Henley cashed a Top 20 finish last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, breaking a streak of four straight T10 or better, including a pair of Top 5s.

Henley now enters the BMW Championship with elite form and a profile built for Caves Valley’s demanding par-70 setup. Ranked 5th in SG: Total and 8th in Tee-to-Green, Henley’s strengths lie in his elite precision - plus his 17th in SG: Approach, 6th in proximity, and 15th in driving accuracy (66.94%) - the list goes on in ways in which Henley can place the ball.

While his driving distance is well below field average (rank 165), his pinpoint iron play — particularly from long range (6th in proximity from 275+ yards) — and top-five short game (SG: Around-the-Green) help him mitigate the lack of power.

His BMW history is solid, with a T8 in 2023 and T22 last year, showing he can compete in playoff pressure.

From a betting perspective, Henley makes another appealing ladder play. His 5.3% win probability implies fair odds of +1790, while his 37.4% for a Top 10 (+220, fair at +170) and 21.5% for a Top 5 (+550, fair at +365) present standalone value as well.

New to bet365? $5 on Henley to win gets you a $150 new-user bonus, win or lose.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000 on FanDuel)

Matt Fitzpatrick (40th in the FedExCup) needs at least a two-way T21 to reach East Lake, so bettors are getting a solid contender who needs a strong performance with a bet on the Englishman this week.

Fitzpatrick has been one of the hottest players of the summer — back-to-back T4s at the Genesis Scottish Open and The Open plus a T8 at Wyndham have thrust him into contention for East Lake after sitting outside the Top 100 earlier this year.

His profile suits Caves Valley’s long setup: strong putting where he's ranked 26th, and Approaches > 200 yards where he ranks 17th on TOUR.

He's finished T2 (2023) and T6 (2020) here and is due for another Top 10 with his spot in the FedExCup Top 30 on the line.

At 3.0%, out fair odds for a Fitzpatrick win would be +3200 while he's available at +4000 on BetMGM.

Corey Conners (+5500 on BetMGM)

Conners comes in at +5500 (fair price closer to +4900 and as low as +4000 on some books) with just a 2.0% win probability, but his history at the BMW Championship demands attention — three top-10s since 2021, including a T5 in 2022 and T10 in 2023. His game is anchored by elite ball-striking, ranking 20th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 40th in SG: Approach, both critical for Caves Valley’s driver-heavy, long-iron test.

His form has dipped of late — just one top-20 in his last six starts after seven in his previous eight — and his short game remains a liability (124th SG: Around-the-Green). Still, with firm, fast conditions that are expected to put a premium on accuracy and greens hit, Conners’ tee-to-green precision could outweigh the chipping concerns.

Given his course history and skill fit, Conners is a prime longshot to take a chance on at the BMW Championship.

He’s also a solid matchup option against streaky or distance-reliant players, especially if scoring hovers closer to even par than the 2021 birdie-fest.

Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR

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