2023 NFL Win Totals - Picks and Projections for Every AFC Team

We're less than a month out from kickoff to the 2023-24 NFL season! Take a look at our model's win/loss projections for every team in the AFC.

As preseason games roll on, it's hard not to get excited about every single team in the NFL. When the records are 0-0, every team can talk themselves into a playoff run. But the truth is only two teams will make the Super Bowl and only one of them will take home the title of NFL champions.

In order to fully prep for the wealth of betting opportunities we’ll have this season, we’re going to be analyzing win totals for every single team in the NFL. Combining our cutting-edge predictive analytics model with our own know-how, we’ll look at the outlook for each team as predicted by DimersBOT, and determine which side of the Over/Under you should bet for each NFL team. 

MORE: Three Early NFL Futures Bets to Make Now

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NFL Divisional Previews

AFC East | AFC West | AFC South | AFC North coming soon

NFC East | NFC West | NFC North | NFC South 

AFC Team By Team Win/Loss Projections

Cincinnati Bengals

2022-23 Record: 12-4, lost in AFC Championship

2023 Win Total: O/U 10.5

Outlook: The Bengals are favored to repeat as AFC North champions, and may have escaped a major training camp injury scare. QB Joe Burrow went down with a calf strain earlier this summer and questions began to swirl around the Bengals' place in a division expected to be more competitive this year. Fortunately for all, Burrow appears as though he'll be ready for Week 1 if not shortly after.

That doesn't mean we need to simply jump on the Over for the Bengals' win total, in fact, you may need to shop around to find the right line as some books offer 10.5 while others offer 11.5 or even both. Our model projects the Bengals with a 19.4% chance of exactly 11 wins, our most common result. 

Recommendation: Over 10.5 Wins (-130) at DraftKings Sportsbook

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Baltimore Ravens

2022 Record: 10-7, lost in Wildcard Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 10.5

Outlook: The Ravens are looking to make a serious run this year with a healthy Lamar Jackson and an expanded receiving corps that features Odell Beckham Jr. They'll be contending with one of the league's best in the Bengals and a talented Browns offense that just might find its groove this season. They also face their fair share of playoff contenders including the Dolphins, 49ers and Lions.

DraftKings is where you'll find the best price in either direction on this total, though our model favors the Under with approximately a 63% chance of the Ravens tallying fewer than 11 wins this year, with almost a 45% chance to go under 9.5 if you want that sweet plus money at +150.

Recommendation: Under 10.5 Wins (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Cleveland Browns

2022 Record: 7-10, last place in AFC North

2023 Win Total: O/U 9.5

Outlook: The Browns want to be a contender so badly, giving Deshan Watson unlimited money, sticking by their stud RB Nick Chubb and bringing in WR talent like Amari Cooper but it has yet to translate onto the field. The AFC North isn't getting any easier with the Dawg Pound getting just a 14.1% chance of winning the division from our model.

Unfortunately for the Browns, DimersBOT doesn't think this year will be much different, projecting them to go under their win total of 9.5. Outside of the common opponents they share with their division mates, they have late-season games against the Broncos, Jets and Bears which could be a tough second half. Our model gives them a 64% chance of going under, which gives us about a 7% edge in the odds.

Recommendation: Under 9.5 Wins (-130) at BetMGM Sportsbook

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Pittsburgh Steelers

2022 Record: 9-8, 3rd place in AFC North

2023 Win Total: O/U 8.5

Outlook: Is this finally the year? Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in the NFL. That's pretty phenomenal stuff, even if he squeaked by at 8-8 on three separate occasions, but that's no longer in the cards with the 17-game schedule introduced last season (barring a tie, of course). 

Maybe it's a little because of the Mike Tomlin narrative with the jury still out on Kenny Pickett, but the books are all about the Steelers this year, juicing their win total as high as -150 to the over, implying a 60% chance. DimersBOT couldn't disagree more, with the Steelers' most frequent result at 8 wins, and just a 46% chance of going Over, meaning their odds should be +115, not -150.

Recommendation: Under 8.5 Wins (+125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

Buffalo Bills

2022-23 Record: 13-3, lost in Divisional Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 10.5

Outlook: Buffalo has their sights set as high as can be, with anything less than a Super Bowl a failure after coming up short in the playoffs the past two seasons. There's no reason to expect anything different in terms of ceiling for this team in 2023.

The Bills have some softies in the schedule this year, with games against the Raiders, Commanders and Bucs all in the early weeks of the season. Add in some games against mid-tier teams like the Broncos and Giants and this is looking better by the week. With a ceiling this high, the last thing you want to do is fade the BIlls in this market.

Recommendation: Over 10.5 Wins (-134) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Miami Dolphins

2022 Record: 9-8, lost in Wild Card Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 9.5

Outlook: The Miami Dolphins are on a quest to seize control of the AFC East and turn Tua Tagovailoa into their first real franchise quarterback since Dan Marino. Unfortunately for the 'Phins, this division still runs through the Buffalo Bills and the Jets have passed them in terms of upside after bringing Aaron Rodgers on board. Looking at their schedule and they've got games against the Chiefs, Chargers, Cowboys, Jaguars Ravens and Eagles. Yikes.

DimersBOT gives them a strong 62% probability to go under 9.5 wins which is good value at -110 to the Under. But with how difficult their schedule is, combined with the 42% chance of going under 8.5 wins, the alternate line might be the play.

Recommendation: Alternate Under 8.5 Wins (+165) at BetMGM Sportsbook

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

New York Jets

2022 Record: 7-10, last place in AFC East

2023 Win Total: O/U 9.5

Outlook: The Jets enter a new era, with Sheriff Aaron Rodgers under center. Gone are the woes of Zach Wilson, Mike White and whoever else they dragged out of the locker room on any given Sunday and in its place are Super Bowl aspirations. The Jets are the most bet team to win it all this season, both thanks to their immense popularity in the New York market and the Hard Knocks effect. They'll have to contend with the likes of the Bills and Dolphins to try and secure a winning record in the AFC East.

DimersBOT isn't buying either, giving the Jets a 20.7% chance to win the division and just a 40% chance to go over 9.5 wins, predicting more of a Hard Knock hangover than the ushering in of a new era. At even-money, this play presents value all on its own.

Recommendation: Under 9.5 Wins (+100) at FanDuel Sportsbook

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

New England Patriots

2022 Record: 8-9, 3rd place in AFC East

2023 Win Total: O/U 6.5

Outlook: Dark days are here for the Patriots, although their fans certainly don't believe so. With a whopping 95% of Pats' bets on the "make playoffs" side, the faithful aren't preparing themselves for the rough season ahead. Even if they can surpass their win total, the line of 6.5 suggests the playoffs are much further away.

This is an interesting one, as even though DimersBOT projects Bill Belichick and Co. with a  44% chance to go under 6.5, their most frequent result per our projections is 6-11. The Patriots also get one of the worst records through the first five weeks based on our model's simulations, making them worth a look as the last winless team at +2200.

Recommendation: Lean Under 6.5 Wins (+120) at DraftKings Sportsbook

MORE: AFC East Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs

2022-23 Record: 14-3, won Super Bowl

2023 Win Total: O/U 11.5

Outlook: It could be Dynasty time for the Kansas City Chiefs if they can secure their third title in the past five seasons. Tom Brady *just* retired and his most-likely challenger for GOAT status is just entering the prime of his career. Ever since Patrick Mahomes joined the Chiefs, they have won at least 12 games and been to five-straight AFC Championships. So why isn't their win total at 12.5, especially with the 17th game added last season?

Because despite what we saw Mahomes and co. achieve last year, failing to find as close to a 1:1 replacement for an elite WR like Tyreek Hill and continuing to lean on an aging (but still great, make no mistake) Travis Kelce at tight end *should* catch up to this team and their difficult schedule. And DimersBOT agrees, with 11 wins as their most frequent result and a 56% chance to go under 11.5. At +120, this is pretty good value on its own. But if you aren't interested in fading the Chiefs, the -134 for Over 11.5 isn't very appealing. Consider exactly 12 (+475 at 17.6% probability) or 13 wins (+500 at 13.5% probability) instead.

Recommendation: Under 11.5 Wins (+120) at DraftKings Sportsbook

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Los Angeles Chargers

2022 Record: 10-7, lost in Wild Card Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 9.5

Outlook: A brutal second-half collapse against Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars in the Wild Card prevented the Chargers from facing the Chiefs for a shot at the AFC title last season. Is this the year the Bolts can finally catch up to the Chiefs in the division and avoid such an opportunity for collapse? Not according to DimersBOT, with the Chargers getting just a 43% probability of going over this number for the second year in a row. 

Though we have their most common result as 9-8, they also have a 39% chance of finishing with a losing record which means we don't give them a very high ceiling in a division that is expected to be more difficult this year as long as the Broncos can field a competent team. Plus, L.A.> will face the Bills, Cowboys, Lions, Jets and Ravens this year. Under 8.5 at +170 is certainly worth a look with a slight edge in the odds compared to the 39% probability. 

Recommendation: Under 9.5 Wins (+105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

Denver Broncos

2022 Record: 5-12, last place in AFC West

2023 Win Total: O/U 8.5

Outlook: You can tell the books are just as unsure of which version of the Broncos we'll see this year as the general public. Anywhere you look, the Over/Under odds for their win total are almost dead even at around -110 each way. Does Sean Payton come in and right the ship, turning this team into a defensive stalwart with big-time offensive upside, or do we get another year of overcooked Russell Wilson and more disappointment? It's looking like another year of the latter if DimersBOT's projections are any indication.

At a 59% chance to go under 8.5, our model predicts a losing season for Denver. Despite their expected improvement, they still have to contend with the world-beating Chiefs and talented Chargers as well as the likes of the Jets, Bills, Lions and Dolphins. Even if this team is competitive week-to-week, 9 wins might be a tall ask with that schedule. However, at -110, you're laying some juice even though there's value here. If you want a plus-money option, grab exactly 8 wins at +600.

Recommendation: Lean Under 8.5 Wins (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Las Vegas Raiders

2022 Record: 6-11, 3rd place in AFC West

2023 Win Total: O/U 6.5

Outlook: It could be a long season in Las Vegas as veteran game manager Jimmy Garoppolo takes over under center in the post-Derek Carr era of the Raiders. Garoppolo has been to the NFC Championship and even had a lead over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the Super Bowl a few years ago, but that was primarily off the back of an elite defense and offensive mastermind Kyle Shanahan. Neither of those are present in Las Vegas. With just a single winning season in the last six years, it's generally hard to be excited about backing this team.

Despite what we've said, our model isn't predicting all doom and gloom in the desert, giving the Silver and Black a 64% chance to go over 6.5 wins. Their chances for exactly 7 or 8 wins are both higher than their chances of another 6-11 record, meaning our model truly believes this number is wrong. At plus-money for the Over anywhere you look, this is a significant +EV bet.

Recommendation: Over 6.5 Wins (+110) at DraftKings Sportsbook

MORE: AFC West Predictions

Jacksonville Jaguars

2022-23 Record: 9-8, lost in Divisional Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 9.5

Outlook: Things are looking up for the Jaguars who have their sights set on some big aspirations. After winning the division last season following four-straight last-place finishes, this could be a "Super Bowl or bust" team before you know it and they're much better equipped on offense than they were in their miracle run to the AFC Championship in 2017. They're one of the shortest favorites in the division winners market.

DimersBOT is split right down the middle for the Jaguars, giving them a 51% chance of going over 9.5 wins, although we identify their most likely result as finishing with 10 wins (17.2%). The best price we've found to the Over is -140 which we can't recommend for a play with nearly a 50/50 chance. this would make the Under a strong play at +120 odds. Though they'll have some teams with rookie QBs to beat up on in the AFC South, they will play the Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens and 49ers. That's a tough schedule for a team with high expectations.

Recommendation: Lean Under 9.5 Wins (+125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Tennessee Titans

2022 Record: 7-10, 2nd place in NFC South

2023 Win Total: O/U 7.5

Outlook: The Titans started as one of the NFL's better teams in 2022 before a disastrous 0-7 stretch to close the season culminated in losing the AFC South and missing the playoffs. To think they were one win away from hitting this over just two months into the season and then missing it makes our stomachs churn. This might also make your stomach churn, but the Titans are another team projected by our model to go over their total. 

At nearly 69% probability to go over 7.5 wins, we're seeing noticeable value considering -125 implies just a 56% chance. Outside of their division, the toughest teams the Titans face are the Bengals, Chargers and Ravens, while also getting games against the Bucs, Browns and Steelers. Interstingly, our model projects them with exactly the same chance (17.02%) to finish with exactly 8 (+600) or 9 (+700) wins.

Recommendation: Over 7.5 Wins (-125) at DraftKings Sportsbook

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

Indianapolis Colts

2022 Record: 4-12-1, 3rd place in AFC South

2023 Win Total: O/U 6.5

Outlook: One of two teams in the AFC South starting their rebuild, the Colts turn to recently confirmed starting QB Anthony Richardson to guide them out of the darkness that was the Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan experiments. It's surprising to see a team with a rookie QB and new (though experienced) head coach get a jump of three wins in their implied total, but DimersBOT agrees, giving them a 61% chance of doing so.

With games against the Rams, Panthers, Steelers and Bucs in addition to the two they get against the Texans, they will have chances for some easier wins and plenty of opportunity to grind out the one or two that will make the difference. If you're backing this Over, it might be worth grabbing Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +600 because those odds will drop if they push 8 wins or better.

Recommendation: Over 6.5 Wins (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Houston Texans

2022 Record: 3-13-1, last place in AFC South

2023 Win Total: O/U 6.5

Outlook: The only team in this division with an outright Under projected by DiemrsBOT, the Texans have an entirely new-look team in 2023. After hiring DeMeco Ryans as their new head coach, bringing in a bunch of talented free agents and getting back-to-back picks in the NFL Draft, they are set up to start something. However, that something may take a few years to develop, as we project them to finish with six wins or fewer in 58% of our simulations.

The books agree with their Under juiced to around -135 or worse. Their schedule isn't the worst, but they'll play the Jets, Ravens and Bengals, as well as the far more experienced Saints, Browns and Broncos which are just not easy matchups for a rookie QB and head coach. At -35, the odds aren't appealing either, so we'd recommend taking an alternate line or staying away.

Recommendation: Lean Alternate Under 5.5 Wins (+130) at DraftKings Sportsbook

MORE: AFC South Predictions

Get a head start on your NFL wagers with our full slate of NFL tools, all powered by our cutting-edge predictive analytics model known as ‘DimersBOT!’ We run 1000s of simulations for every game all season long to help identify where the books are mispricing their odds, all to help you turn a profit.

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