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Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid La Liga game on September 27, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
LA LIGA
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FINAL
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LA LIGA
Real Madrid
2
5
Sep 27, 2:15PM Riyadh Air Metropolitano (Madrid)
Atletico Madrid
Sep 27, 2:15PM Riyadh Air Metropolitano (Madrid)
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
Atletico MadridATM
Score Summary
Real MadridRMA
R. Le Normand (14')
A. Sorloth (45')
J. Alvarez (pen.) (51')
J. Alvarez (63')
A. Griezmann (90')
K. Mbappe (25')
A. Guler (36')
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
ATM
100.0%
Draw
0.0%
RMA
0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Atl. Madrid: A. Baena replaces G. Simeone
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Atl. Madrid: N. Molina replaces J. Alvarez
90'
Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by A. Griezmann, assisted by A. Baena
2-5
90'
Yellow Card
C. Gallagher (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
90'
Yellow Card
F. Mastantuono (Real Madrid) cautioned
89'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: F. Garcia replaces D. Huijsen
83'
Substitution
Substitution for Atl. Madrid: J. Galan replaces D. Hancko
83'
Substitution
Substitution for Atl. Madrid: A. Griezmann replaces N. Gonzalez
82'
Yellow Card
G. Simeone (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
70'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: Rodrygo replaces J. Bellingham
67'
Substitution
Substitution for Atl. Madrid: C. Gallagher replaces A. Sorloth
63'
Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by J. Alvarez
2-4
62'
Yellow Card
A. Carreras (Real Madrid) cautioned
59'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: E. Camavinga replaces D. Carvajal
59'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: F. Mastantuono replaces A. Guler
58'
Yellow Card
R. Asencio (Real Madrid) cautioned
56'
Yellow Card
C. Lenglet (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
51'
Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by J. Alvarez (pen.)
2-3
50'
Yellow Card
A. Guler (Real Madrid) cautioned
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: R. Asencio replaces Eder Militao
45'
Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by A. Sorloth, assisted by Koke
2-2
44'
VAR: Goal Disallowed - handball
40'
Yellow Card
N. Gonzalez (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
36'
Goal scored for Real Madrid by A. Guler, assisted by Vinicius Junior
2-1
25'
Goal scored for Real Madrid by K. Mbappe, assisted by A. Guler
1-1
22'
Yellow Card
A. Sorloth (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
14'
Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by R. Le Normand, assisted by G. Simeone
0-1

Game Prediction Article

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Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid
  • Date: Saturday, September 27, 2025
  • Time: 10:15 AM ET
  • Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Current Betting Odds

  • Moneyline Odds: Atletico Madrid +215, Real Madrid +125, Draw +250
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 (-134/+114)

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Atletico Madrid: 34.7%
  • Real Madrid: 40.2%
  • Draw: 25.0%

Dimers.com's predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our most likely correct score for this La Liga game is Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid, which has a correct score probability of 12%.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations. In some cases, a team can have a higher overall probability of winning, yet the most likely specific outcome (correct score) is a draw.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives Atletico Madrid a win probability of 34.7%, while Real Madrid has a win probability of 40.2%. The chance of a draw is 25.0%.

Summary

Our Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert La Liga predictions and the best La Liga bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes La Liga futures, La Liga odds, and the latest La Liga news.

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